Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave
During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, sug...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:525959 2023-05-15T17:29:54+02:00 Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T 2019-11-14 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525959/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525959/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525959/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf Mecking, J V; Drijfhout, S S; Hirschi, J J-M; Blaker, A T orcid:0000-0001-5454-0131 . 2019 Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (11). 114035. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33> cc_by CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 2023-02-04T19:49:39Z During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Environmental Research Letters 14 11 114035 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T |
spellingShingle |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
author_facet |
Mecking, J V Drijfhout, S S Hirschi, J J-M Blaker, A T |
author_sort |
Mecking, J V |
title |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_short |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_full |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_fullStr |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave |
title_sort |
ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 european heatwave |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525959/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525959/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525959/1/Mecking_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_114035.pdf Mecking, J V; Drijfhout, S S; Hirschi, J J-M; Blaker, A T orcid:0000-0001-5454-0131 . 2019 Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (11). 114035. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114035 |
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1766125135076524032 |