The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability
Evidence from paleo-proxy records suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can be in both an AMOC on state, the AMOC as we observe it today, and an AMOC off state, where the AMOC becomes extremely weak or even collapses. The freshwater transport due to the AMOC () at 34°S...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:525949 2023-05-15T17:34:04+02:00 The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability Mecking, J.V. Drijfhout, S.S. Jackson, L.C. Andrews, M.B. 2017 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525949/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525949/1/The%20effect%20of%20model%20bias%20on%20Atlantic%20freshwater%20transport%20and%20implications%20for%20AMOC%20bi%20stability.pdf https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525949/1/The%20effect%20of%20model%20bias%20on%20Atlantic%20freshwater%20transport%20and%20implications%20for%20AMOC%20bi%20stability.pdf Mecking, J.V.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Jackson, L.C.; Andrews, M.B. 2017 The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 69 (1). 1299910. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910 <https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910 2023-02-04T19:49:39Z Evidence from paleo-proxy records suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can be in both an AMOC on state, the AMOC as we observe it today, and an AMOC off state, where the AMOC becomes extremely weak or even collapses. The freshwater transport due to the AMOC () at 34°S in the Atlantic has often been used as an indicator for bi-stability, with a positive suggesting a monostable AMOC and a negative suggesting a bi-stable AMOC. Often studies have shown that the sign of the divergence of the might be a good indicator of AMOC bi-stability. In this study we investigate how model bias affects the sign of across all latitudes in the Atlantic basin, through a detailed analysis of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. , in the CMIP5 models is generally too positive in the southern Atlantic due to a salinity bias, while in the subtropical North Atlantic the values of are influenced by a combination of velocity and salinity biases. We compare these results to observations, reanalysis products and Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 global configuration version 2, a current generation coupled model which exhibits a stable AMOC off state, and discuss the differences that can lead to the possibility of a bi-stable AMOC as opposed to a monostable AMOC. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 69 1 1299910 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Evidence from paleo-proxy records suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can be in both an AMOC on state, the AMOC as we observe it today, and an AMOC off state, where the AMOC becomes extremely weak or even collapses. The freshwater transport due to the AMOC () at 34°S in the Atlantic has often been used as an indicator for bi-stability, with a positive suggesting a monostable AMOC and a negative suggesting a bi-stable AMOC. Often studies have shown that the sign of the divergence of the might be a good indicator of AMOC bi-stability. In this study we investigate how model bias affects the sign of across all latitudes in the Atlantic basin, through a detailed analysis of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. , in the CMIP5 models is generally too positive in the southern Atlantic due to a salinity bias, while in the subtropical North Atlantic the values of are influenced by a combination of velocity and salinity biases. We compare these results to observations, reanalysis products and Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 global configuration version 2, a current generation coupled model which exhibits a stable AMOC off state, and discuss the differences that can lead to the possibility of a bi-stable AMOC as opposed to a monostable AMOC. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mecking, J.V. Drijfhout, S.S. Jackson, L.C. Andrews, M.B. |
spellingShingle |
Mecking, J.V. Drijfhout, S.S. Jackson, L.C. Andrews, M.B. The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability |
author_facet |
Mecking, J.V. Drijfhout, S.S. Jackson, L.C. Andrews, M.B. |
author_sort |
Mecking, J.V. |
title |
The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability |
title_short |
The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability |
title_full |
The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability |
title_fullStr |
The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability |
title_full_unstemmed |
The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability |
title_sort |
effect of model bias on atlantic freshwater transport and implications for amoc bi-stability |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525949/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525949/1/The%20effect%20of%20model%20bias%20on%20Atlantic%20freshwater%20transport%20and%20implications%20for%20AMOC%20bi%20stability.pdf https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525949/1/The%20effect%20of%20model%20bias%20on%20Atlantic%20freshwater%20transport%20and%20implications%20for%20AMOC%20bi%20stability.pdf Mecking, J.V.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Jackson, L.C.; Andrews, M.B. 2017 The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 69 (1). 1299910. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910 <https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1299910 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1299910 |
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