Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine mod...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:523370 2023-05-15T13:41:43+02:00 Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A.N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goose, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana 2019-06-07 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523370/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523370/1/geosciences-09-00255.pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/255 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523370/1/geosciences-09-00255.pdf Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Colleoni, Florence; Abram, Nerilie J.; Bertler, Nancy A.N.; Dixon, Daniel A.; England, Mark; Favier, Vincent; Fogwill, Chris J.; Fyfe, John C.; Goodwin, Ian; Goose, Hugues; Hobbs, Will; Jones, Julie M.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Khan, Alia L.; Phipps, Steven J.; Raphael, Marilyn N.; Russell, Joellen; Sime, Louise orcid:0000-0002-9093-7926 Thomas, Elizabeth R. orcid:0000-0002-3010-6493 van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wainer, Ilana. 2019 Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate. Geosciences, 9 (6), 255. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 <https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 2023-02-04T19:48:22Z Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Geosciences 9 6 255 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
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English |
description |
Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A.N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goose, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana |
spellingShingle |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A.N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goose, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
author_facet |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Colleoni, Florence Abram, Nerilie J. Bertler, Nancy A.N. Dixon, Daniel A. England, Mark Favier, Vincent Fogwill, Chris J. Fyfe, John C. Goodwin, Ian Goose, Hugues Hobbs, Will Jones, Julie M. Keller, Elizabeth D. Khan, Alia L. Phipps, Steven J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Russell, Joellen Sime, Louise Thomas, Elizabeth R. van den Broeke, Michiel R. Wainer, Ilana |
author_sort |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. |
title |
Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_short |
Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_full |
Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_fullStr |
Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate |
title_sort |
back to the future: using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523370/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523370/1/geosciences-09-00255.pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/255 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic ice core Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/523370/1/geosciences-09-00255.pdf Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Colleoni, Florence; Abram, Nerilie J.; Bertler, Nancy A.N.; Dixon, Daniel A.; England, Mark; Favier, Vincent; Fogwill, Chris J.; Fyfe, John C.; Goodwin, Ian; Goose, Hugues; Hobbs, Will; Jones, Julie M.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Khan, Alia L.; Phipps, Steven J.; Raphael, Marilyn N.; Russell, Joellen; Sime, Louise orcid:0000-0002-9093-7926 Thomas, Elizabeth R. orcid:0000-0002-3010-6493 van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wainer, Ilana. 2019 Back to the Future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate. Geosciences, 9 (6), 255. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 <https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060255 |
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Geosciences |
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