Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2
The reduction of maximum usable frequency (MUF) during a geomagnetic storm represents a serious hindrance to the efficient operation of HF transmission links. This paper outlines a new approach to the modeling and forecasting of ƒ0F2 at quiet and disturbed times. Statistical analyses of ionosonde da...
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American Geophysical Union
1989
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521386/ https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:521386 2023-05-15T15:23:21+02:00 Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 Wrenn, G.L. Rodger, Alan S. 1989 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521386/ https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 unknown American Geophysical Union Wrenn, G.L.; Rodger, Alan S. 1989 Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2. Radio Science, 24 (1). 99-111. https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 <https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 1989 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 2023-02-04T19:47:17Z The reduction of maximum usable frequency (MUF) during a geomagnetic storm represents a serious hindrance to the efficient operation of HF transmission links. This paper outlines a new approach to the modeling and forecasting of ƒ0F2 at quiet and disturbed times. Statistical analyses of ionosonde data from the Argentine Islands (65°S) have been used to define patterns for the main phase effects of mid‐latitude ionospheric storms. Extended to a number of stations, these could be incorporated into algorithms to permit the forecasting of MUF for a few hours ahead and enhance the frequency management of shortwave radio communication. Data from a complete solar cycle, 1971–1981, are used to determine the errors in the forecasts and to demonstrate that a useful advantage can be attained by this method. The root‐mean‐square error in ƒ0F2 for 90,175 samples is 15.6%, which compares favorably with those obtained using forecasts based upon quiet time values (20.4%) or the previous day's measurements (18%). Studies of error distribution with respect to local time, season, and phase of the solar cycle highlight limitations in the technique but also indicate avenues to further improvement. Article in Journal/Newspaper Argentine Islands Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Argentine Argentine Islands ENVELOPE(-64.273,-64.273,-65.246,-65.246) Radio Science 24 1 99 111 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
unknown |
description |
The reduction of maximum usable frequency (MUF) during a geomagnetic storm represents a serious hindrance to the efficient operation of HF transmission links. This paper outlines a new approach to the modeling and forecasting of ƒ0F2 at quiet and disturbed times. Statistical analyses of ionosonde data from the Argentine Islands (65°S) have been used to define patterns for the main phase effects of mid‐latitude ionospheric storms. Extended to a number of stations, these could be incorporated into algorithms to permit the forecasting of MUF for a few hours ahead and enhance the frequency management of shortwave radio communication. Data from a complete solar cycle, 1971–1981, are used to determine the errors in the forecasts and to demonstrate that a useful advantage can be attained by this method. The root‐mean‐square error in ƒ0F2 for 90,175 samples is 15.6%, which compares favorably with those obtained using forecasts based upon quiet time values (20.4%) or the previous day's measurements (18%). Studies of error distribution with respect to local time, season, and phase of the solar cycle highlight limitations in the technique but also indicate avenues to further improvement. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wrenn, G.L. Rodger, Alan S. |
spellingShingle |
Wrenn, G.L. Rodger, Alan S. Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 |
author_facet |
Wrenn, G.L. Rodger, Alan S. |
author_sort |
Wrenn, G.L. |
title |
Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 |
title_short |
Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 |
title_full |
Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 |
title_fullStr |
Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2 |
title_sort |
geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0f2 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
1989 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521386/ https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.273,-64.273,-65.246,-65.246) |
geographic |
Argentine Argentine Islands |
geographic_facet |
Argentine Argentine Islands |
genre |
Argentine Islands |
genre_facet |
Argentine Islands |
op_relation |
Wrenn, G.L.; Rodger, Alan S. 1989 Geomagnetic modification of the mid-latitude ionosphere: Toward a strategy for the improved forecasting of ƒ0F2. Radio Science, 24 (1). 99-111. https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 <https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/RS024i001p00099 |
container_title |
Radio Science |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
99 |
op_container_end_page |
111 |
_version_ |
1766354059423383552 |