Choosing the future of Antarctica

• Published in: Nature
• Main Authors: Rintoul, S.R., Chown, S.L., DeConto, R.M., England, M.H., Fricker, H.A., Masson-Delmotte, V., Naish, T.R., Siegert, M.J., Xavier, J.C.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Nature 2018
• Subjects: Southern Ocean; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/520352/; https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/520352/1/Rintoul.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0173-4

We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.