The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses
Arctic Fennoscandia has undergone significant climate change over recent decades. Reanalysis data sets allow us to understand the atmospheric processes driving such changes. Here we evaluate four reanalyses against observations of near‐surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PPN) from 35 me...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Royal Meteorological Society
2018
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:518735 2023-05-15T14:26:21+02:00 The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses Marshall, Gareth J. Kivinen, Sonja Jylha, Kirsti Vignols, Rebecca M. Rees, W.G. 2018-08 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518735/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518735/1/Marshall_et_al-2018-International_Journal_of_Climatology.pdf https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.5541 en eng Royal Meteorological Society https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518735/1/Marshall_et_al-2018-International_Journal_of_Climatology.pdf Marshall, Gareth J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Kivinen, Sonja; Jylha, Kirsti; Vignols, Rebecca M.; Rees, W.G. 2018 The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (10). 3878-3895. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5541 <https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5541> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5541 2023-02-04T19:45:46Z Arctic Fennoscandia has undergone significant climate change over recent decades. Reanalysis data sets allow us to understand the atmospheric processes driving such changes. Here we evaluate four reanalyses against observations of near‐surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PPN) from 35 meteorological stations across the region for the 35‐year period from 1979 to 2013. The reanalyses compared are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA‐Interim), the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) 55‐year reanalysis (JRA‐55) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All four reanalyses have an overall small cool bias across Arctic Fennoscandia, with MERRA typically ~1 °C cooler than the others. They generally reproduce the broad spatial patterns of mean SAT across the region, although less well in areas of complex orography. Observations reveal a statistically significant warming across Arctic Fennoscandia, with the majority of trends significant at p < .01. Three reanalyses show similar regional warming but of smaller magnitude while CFSR is anomalous, even having a slight cooling in some areas. In general, the other reanalyses are sufficiently accurate to reproduce the varying significance of observed seasonal trends. There are much greater differences between the reanalyses when comparing PPN to observations. MERRA‐Land, which merges a gauge‐based data set, is clearly the best: CFSR is the least successful, with a significant wet bias. The smoothed reanalysis orography means that the high PPN associated with the western side of the Scandinavian Mountains extends too far inland. Spatial patterns of PPN trends across the region differ markedly between the reanalyses, which have varying success at matching observations and generally fail to replicate sites with significant ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Arctic Merra ENVELOPE(12.615,12.615,65.816,65.816) International Journal of Climatology 38 10 3878 3895 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic Fennoscandia has undergone significant climate change over recent decades. Reanalysis data sets allow us to understand the atmospheric processes driving such changes. Here we evaluate four reanalyses against observations of near‐surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PPN) from 35 meteorological stations across the region for the 35‐year period from 1979 to 2013. The reanalyses compared are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA‐Interim), the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) 55‐year reanalysis (JRA‐55) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All four reanalyses have an overall small cool bias across Arctic Fennoscandia, with MERRA typically ~1 °C cooler than the others. They generally reproduce the broad spatial patterns of mean SAT across the region, although less well in areas of complex orography. Observations reveal a statistically significant warming across Arctic Fennoscandia, with the majority of trends significant at p < .01. Three reanalyses show similar regional warming but of smaller magnitude while CFSR is anomalous, even having a slight cooling in some areas. In general, the other reanalyses are sufficiently accurate to reproduce the varying significance of observed seasonal trends. There are much greater differences between the reanalyses when comparing PPN to observations. MERRA‐Land, which merges a gauge‐based data set, is clearly the best: CFSR is the least successful, with a significant wet bias. The smoothed reanalysis orography means that the high PPN associated with the western side of the Scandinavian Mountains extends too far inland. Spatial patterns of PPN trends across the region differ markedly between the reanalyses, which have varying success at matching observations and generally fail to replicate sites with significant ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marshall, Gareth J. Kivinen, Sonja Jylha, Kirsti Vignols, Rebecca M. Rees, W.G. |
spellingShingle |
Marshall, Gareth J. Kivinen, Sonja Jylha, Kirsti Vignols, Rebecca M. Rees, W.G. The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
author_facet |
Marshall, Gareth J. Kivinen, Sonja Jylha, Kirsti Vignols, Rebecca M. Rees, W.G. |
author_sort |
Marshall, Gareth J. |
title |
The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
title_short |
The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
title_full |
The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
title_fullStr |
The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
title_full_unstemmed |
The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
title_sort |
accuracy of climate variability and trends across arctic fennoscandia in four reanalyses |
publisher |
Royal Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518735/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518735/1/Marshall_et_al-2018-International_Journal_of_Climatology.pdf https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.5541 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(12.615,12.615,65.816,65.816) |
geographic |
Arctic Merra |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Merra |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518735/1/Marshall_et_al-2018-International_Journal_of_Climatology.pdf Marshall, Gareth J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Kivinen, Sonja; Jylha, Kirsti; Vignols, Rebecca M.; Rees, W.G. 2018 The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (10). 3878-3895. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5541 <https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5541> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5541 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3878 |
op_container_end_page |
3895 |
_version_ |
1766298852236722176 |