Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations
In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small,...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:517991 2023-05-15T13:49:34+02:00 Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. 2018-02-14 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517991/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517991/1/Young.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1111/eva.12613/abstract en eng Wiley https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517991/1/Young.pdf Young, Emma F. orcid:0000-0002-7069-6109 Tysklind, Niklas; Meredith, Michael P. orcid:0000-0002-7342-7756 de Bruyn, Mark; Belchier, Mark; Murphy, Eugene J. orcid:0000-0002-7369-9196 Carvalho, Gary R. 2018 Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations. Evolutionary Applications, 11 (6). 978-994. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 <https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 2023-02-04T19:45:27Z In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated, and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant, and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an Individual Based Modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem-level management. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Scotia Sea Stepping Stones ENVELOPE(-63.992,-63.992,-64.786,-64.786) Evolutionary Applications 11 6 978 994 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated, and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant, and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an Individual Based Modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem-level management. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. |
spellingShingle |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
author_facet |
Young, Emma F. Tysklind, Niklas Meredith, Michael P. de Bruyn, Mark Belchier, Mark Murphy, Eugene J. Carvalho, Gary R. |
author_sort |
Young, Emma F. |
title |
Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_short |
Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_full |
Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_fullStr |
Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
title_sort |
stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517991/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517991/1/Young.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1111/eva.12613/abstract |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.992,-63.992,-64.786,-64.786) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Notothenia rossii Scotia Sea Stepping Stones |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/517991/1/Young.pdf Young, Emma F. orcid:0000-0002-7069-6109 Tysklind, Niklas; Meredith, Michael P. orcid:0000-0002-7342-7756 de Bruyn, Mark; Belchier, Mark; Murphy, Eugene J. orcid:0000-0002-7369-9196 Carvalho, Gary R. 2018 Stepping stones to isolation: impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations. Evolutionary Applications, 11 (6). 978-994. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 <https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12613 |
container_title |
Evolutionary Applications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
978 |
op_container_end_page |
994 |
_version_ |
1766251698844598272 |