Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability
Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere1. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers2, disintegration of floating ice shelves3 and a ‘greening’ through t...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:514089 2023-05-15T13:49:33+02:00 Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab 2016-07 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514089/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514089/1/Turner%20Nature%20with%20figures.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 en eng Macmillan Publishers Ltd https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514089/1/Turner%20Nature%20with%20figures.pdf Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Lu, Hua orcid:0000-0001-9485-5082 White, Ian; King, John C. orcid:0000-0003-3315-7568 Phillips, Tony orcid:0000-0002-3058-9157 Hosking, J. Scott orcid:0000-0002-3646-3504 Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Marshall, Gareth J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Mulvaney, Robert orcid:0000-0002-5372-8148 Deb, Pranab. 2016 Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature, 535 (7612). 411-415. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 <https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 2023-02-04T19:43:18Z Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere1. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers2, disintegration of floating ice shelves3 and a ‘greening’ through the expansion in range of various flora4. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion5, local sea-ice loss6, an increase in westerly winds5, 7, and changes in the strength and location of low–high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections8, 9. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Sea ice Weddell Sea Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Weddell Sea Austral Weddell Nature 535 7612 411 415 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere1. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers2, disintegration of floating ice shelves3 and a ‘greening’ through the expansion in range of various flora4. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion5, local sea-ice loss6, an increase in westerly winds5, 7, and changes in the strength and location of low–high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections8, 9. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab |
spellingShingle |
Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
author_facet |
Turner, John Lu, Hua White, Ian King, John C. Phillips, Tony Hosking, J. Scott Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Marshall, Gareth J. Mulvaney, Robert Deb, Pranab |
author_sort |
Turner, John |
title |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_short |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_full |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_fullStr |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability |
title_sort |
absence of 21st century warming on antarctic peninsula consistent with natural variability |
publisher |
Macmillan Publishers Ltd |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514089/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514089/1/Turner%20Nature%20with%20figures.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Weddell Sea Austral Weddell |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Weddell Sea Austral Weddell |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Sea ice Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Sea ice Weddell Sea |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514089/1/Turner%20Nature%20with%20figures.pdf Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Lu, Hua orcid:0000-0001-9485-5082 White, Ian; King, John C. orcid:0000-0003-3315-7568 Phillips, Tony orcid:0000-0002-3058-9157 Hosking, J. Scott orcid:0000-0002-3646-3504 Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Marshall, Gareth J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Mulvaney, Robert orcid:0000-0002-5372-8148 Deb, Pranab. 2016 Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature, 535 (7612). 411-415. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 <https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18645 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
535 |
container_issue |
7612 |
container_start_page |
411 |
op_container_end_page |
415 |
_version_ |
1766251538915786752 |