Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where
Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:512035 2023-05-15T15:09:44+02:00 Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where Henson, Stephanie Beaulieu, Claudie Lampitt, Richard 2016-04 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/3/gcb13152.pdf https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/1/nstar_pap_Rev.docx en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/3/gcb13152.pdf https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/1/nstar_pap_Rev.docx Henson, Stephanie orcid:0000-0002-3875-6802 Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard. 2016 Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where. Global Change Biology, 22 (4). 1561-1571. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152 2023-02-04T19:42:16Z Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the ‘footprint’ of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9–15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Arctic Global Change Biology 22 4 1561 1571 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the ‘footprint’ of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9–15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Henson, Stephanie Beaulieu, Claudie Lampitt, Richard |
spellingShingle |
Henson, Stephanie Beaulieu, Claudie Lampitt, Richard Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
author_facet |
Henson, Stephanie Beaulieu, Claudie Lampitt, Richard |
author_sort |
Henson, Stephanie |
title |
Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
title_short |
Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
title_full |
Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
title_fullStr |
Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
title_sort |
observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/3/gcb13152.pdf https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/1/nstar_pap_Rev.docx |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/3/gcb13152.pdf https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512035/1/nstar_pap_Rev.docx Henson, Stephanie orcid:0000-0002-3875-6802 Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard. 2016 Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where. Global Change Biology, 22 (4). 1561-1571. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13152 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1561 |
op_container_end_page |
1571 |
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1766340867695575040 |