The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation
Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature,...
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American Geophysical Union
2015
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:511014 2023-05-15T13:49:32+02:00 The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Stephenson, David B. Turner, John Phillips, Tony 2015-12-11 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/511014/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/511014/1/grl53791.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL067055 en eng American Geophysical Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/511014/1/grl53791.pdf Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Stephenson, David B.; Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Phillips, Tony orcid:0000-0002-3058-9157 . 2015 The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (24). 10832-10839. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055 2023-02-04T19:41:42Z Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070–2099) and historical (1970–1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and −0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 42 24 10,832 10,839 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070–2099) and historical (1970–1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and −0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Stephenson, David B. Turner, John Phillips, Tony |
spellingShingle |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Stephenson, David B. Turner, John Phillips, Tony The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation |
author_facet |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Stephenson, David B. Turner, John Phillips, Tony |
author_sort |
Bracegirdle, Thomas J. |
title |
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation |
title_short |
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation |
title_full |
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation |
title_fullStr |
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation |
title_sort |
importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of antarctic temperature and precipitation |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/511014/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/511014/1/grl53791.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL067055 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/511014/1/grl53791.pdf Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Stephenson, David B.; Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Phillips, Tony orcid:0000-0002-3058-9157 . 2015 The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (24). 10832-10839. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067055 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
42 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
10,832 |
op_container_end_page |
10,839 |
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1766251496304803840 |