Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
2015
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/1/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1579/2015/ |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:510626 2023-05-15T13:23:54+02:00 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate Cornford, S.L. Martin, D.F. Payne, A.J. Ng, E.G. Le Brocq, A.M. Gladstone, R.M. Edwards, T.L. Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M.R. Hellmer, H.H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S.R.M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D.G. 2015-08-18 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/1/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1579/2015/ en eng Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/1/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf Cornford, S.L.; Martin, D.F.; Payne, A.J.; Ng, E.G.; Le Brocq, A.M.; Gladstone, R.M.; Edwards, T.L.; Shannon, S.R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Hellmer, H.H.; Krinner, G.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Timmermann, R.; Vaughan, D.G. orcid:0000-0002-9065-0570 . 2015 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate. The Cryosphere, 9 (3). 1579-1600. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015> cc_by CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 2023-02-04T19:41:30Z We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation, ice shelf melting, and mesh resolution. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rates anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions, ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Sensitivity to mesh resolution is spurious, and we find that sub-kilometer resolution is needed along most regions of the grounding line to avoid systematic under-estimates of the retreat rate, although resolution requirements are more stringent in some regions – for example the Amundsen Sea Embayment – than others – such as the Möller and Institute ice streams. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 9 4 1579 1600 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation, ice shelf melting, and mesh resolution. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rates anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions, ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Sensitivity to mesh resolution is spurious, and we find that sub-kilometer resolution is needed along most regions of the grounding line to avoid systematic under-estimates of the retreat rate, although resolution requirements are more stringent in some regions – for example the Amundsen Sea Embayment – than others – such as the Möller and Institute ice streams. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cornford, S.L. Martin, D.F. Payne, A.J. Ng, E.G. Le Brocq, A.M. Gladstone, R.M. Edwards, T.L. Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M.R. Hellmer, H.H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S.R.M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D.G. |
spellingShingle |
Cornford, S.L. Martin, D.F. Payne, A.J. Ng, E.G. Le Brocq, A.M. Gladstone, R.M. Edwards, T.L. Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M.R. Hellmer, H.H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S.R.M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D.G. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
author_facet |
Cornford, S.L. Martin, D.F. Payne, A.J. Ng, E.G. Le Brocq, A.M. Gladstone, R.M. Edwards, T.L. Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M.R. Hellmer, H.H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S.R.M. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D.G. |
author_sort |
Cornford, S.L. |
title |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_short |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_sort |
century-scale simulations of the response of the west antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/1/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1579/2015/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510626/1/tc-9-1579-2015.pdf Cornford, S.L.; Martin, D.F.; Payne, A.J.; Ng, E.G.; Le Brocq, A.M.; Gladstone, R.M.; Edwards, T.L.; Shannon, S.R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Hellmer, H.H.; Krinner, G.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Timmermann, R.; Vaughan, D.G. orcid:0000-0002-9065-0570 . 2015 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate. The Cryosphere, 9 (3). 1579-1600. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1579 |
op_container_end_page |
1600 |
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1766376273244848128 |