Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit
Post-storm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antar...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/1/jgra51683.pdf |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:510016 2023-05-15T13:49:32+02:00 Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit Simms, Laura E. Engebretson, Mark J. Smith, A.J. Clilverd, Mark Pilipenko, Viacheslav Reeves, Geoffrey D. 2015-03 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/1/jgra51683.pdf en eng Wiley https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/1/jgra51683.pdf Simms, Laura E.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Smith, A.J.; Clilverd, Mark orcid:0000-0002-7388-1529 Pilipenko, Viacheslav; Reeves, Geoffrey D. 2015 Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 120 (3). 2052-2060. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020337 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020337> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020337 2023-02-04T19:41:08Z Post-storm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992–2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the post-storm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanatory variables measured a day or two before the flux increase. In a nowcast model, we use averages of variables from the time period when flux is rising during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, and limit the VLF (1.0 kHz) measure to the dawn period at Halley (9–12 UT). This improves the simple correlation of VLF wave intensity with flux, although the VLF effect in an overall multiple regression is still much less than that of other factors. When analyses are performed separately for season and IMF Bz orientation, VLF outweighs the influence of other factors only during winter months when IMF Bz is in an average northward orientation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 120 3 2052 2060 |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Post-storm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992–2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the post-storm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanatory variables measured a day or two before the flux increase. In a nowcast model, we use averages of variables from the time period when flux is rising during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, and limit the VLF (1.0 kHz) measure to the dawn period at Halley (9–12 UT). This improves the simple correlation of VLF wave intensity with flux, although the VLF effect in an overall multiple regression is still much less than that of other factors. When analyses are performed separately for season and IMF Bz orientation, VLF outweighs the influence of other factors only during winter months when IMF Bz is in an average northward orientation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simms, Laura E. Engebretson, Mark J. Smith, A.J. Clilverd, Mark Pilipenko, Viacheslav Reeves, Geoffrey D. |
spellingShingle |
Simms, Laura E. Engebretson, Mark J. Smith, A.J. Clilverd, Mark Pilipenko, Viacheslav Reeves, Geoffrey D. Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
author_facet |
Simms, Laura E. Engebretson, Mark J. Smith, A.J. Clilverd, Mark Pilipenko, Viacheslav Reeves, Geoffrey D. |
author_sort |
Simms, Laura E. |
title |
Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
title_short |
Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
title_full |
Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
title_sort |
analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based vlf wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/1/jgra51683.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/510016/1/jgra51683.pdf Simms, Laura E.; Engebretson, Mark J.; Smith, A.J.; Clilverd, Mark orcid:0000-0002-7388-1529 Pilipenko, Viacheslav; Reeves, Geoffrey D. 2015 Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 120 (3). 2052-2060. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020337 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020337> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA020337 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
2052 |
op_container_end_page |
2060 |
_version_ |
1766251481947701248 |