Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14
During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We a...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:509741 2023-05-15T18:18:23+02:00 Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 Huntingford, Chris Marsh, Terry Scaife, Adam A. Kendon, Elizabeth J. Hannaford, Jamie Kay, Alison L. Lockwood, Mike Prudhomme, Christel Reynard, Nick S. Parry, Simon Lowe, Jason A. Screen, James A. Ward, Helen C. Roberts, Malcolm Stott, Peter A. Bell, Vicky A. Bailey, Mark Jenkins, Alan Legg, Tim Otto, Friederike E.L. Massey, Neil Schaller, Nathalie Slingo, Julia Allen, Myles R. 2014-09 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509741/ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2314.html unknown Nature Publishing Group Huntingford, Chris; Marsh, Terry; Scaife, Adam A.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Hannaford, Jamie orcid:0000-0002-5256-3310 Kay, Alison L.; Lockwood, Mike; Prudhomme, Christel; Reynard, Nick S.; Parry, Simon; Lowe, Jason A.; Screen, James A.; Ward, Helen C.; Roberts, Malcolm; Stott, Peter A.; Bell, Vicky A.; Bailey, Mark; Jenkins, Alan; Legg, Tim; Otto, Friederike E.L.; Massey, Neil; Schaller, Nathalie; Slingo, Julia; Allen, Myles R. 2014 Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change, 4 (9). 769-777. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314 <https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314> Earth Sciences Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2014 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314 2023-02-04T19:41:01Z During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Nature Climate Change 4 9 769 777 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology Huntingford, Chris Marsh, Terry Scaife, Adam A. Kendon, Elizabeth J. Hannaford, Jamie Kay, Alison L. Lockwood, Mike Prudhomme, Christel Reynard, Nick S. Parry, Simon Lowe, Jason A. Screen, James A. Ward, Helen C. Roberts, Malcolm Stott, Peter A. Bell, Vicky A. Bailey, Mark Jenkins, Alan Legg, Tim Otto, Friederike E.L. Massey, Neil Schaller, Nathalie Slingo, Julia Allen, Myles R. Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huntingford, Chris Marsh, Terry Scaife, Adam A. Kendon, Elizabeth J. Hannaford, Jamie Kay, Alison L. Lockwood, Mike Prudhomme, Christel Reynard, Nick S. Parry, Simon Lowe, Jason A. Screen, James A. Ward, Helen C. Roberts, Malcolm Stott, Peter A. Bell, Vicky A. Bailey, Mark Jenkins, Alan Legg, Tim Otto, Friederike E.L. Massey, Neil Schaller, Nathalie Slingo, Julia Allen, Myles R. |
author_facet |
Huntingford, Chris Marsh, Terry Scaife, Adam A. Kendon, Elizabeth J. Hannaford, Jamie Kay, Alison L. Lockwood, Mike Prudhomme, Christel Reynard, Nick S. Parry, Simon Lowe, Jason A. Screen, James A. Ward, Helen C. Roberts, Malcolm Stott, Peter A. Bell, Vicky A. Bailey, Mark Jenkins, Alan Legg, Tim Otto, Friederike E.L. Massey, Neil Schaller, Nathalie Slingo, Julia Allen, Myles R. |
author_sort |
Huntingford, Chris |
title |
Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
title_short |
Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
title_full |
Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
title_fullStr |
Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
title_sort |
potential influences on the united kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509741/ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2314.html |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Huntingford, Chris; Marsh, Terry; Scaife, Adam A.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Hannaford, Jamie orcid:0000-0002-5256-3310 Kay, Alison L.; Lockwood, Mike; Prudhomme, Christel; Reynard, Nick S.; Parry, Simon; Lowe, Jason A.; Screen, James A.; Ward, Helen C.; Roberts, Malcolm; Stott, Peter A.; Bell, Vicky A.; Bailey, Mark; Jenkins, Alan; Legg, Tim; Otto, Friederike E.L.; Massey, Neil; Schaller, Nathalie; Slingo, Julia; Allen, Myles R. 2014 Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change, 4 (9). 769-777. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314 <https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
769 |
op_container_end_page |
777 |
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1766194945308229632 |