Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching
We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing structural biases in climate models at the model development stage. We illustrate the method using an investigation of the...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/1/Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z |
id |
ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:509284 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:509284 2023-05-15T13:48:09+02:00 Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching Williamson, Daniel Blaker, Adam T. Hampton, Charlotte Salter, James 2015-09 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/1/Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/1/Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf Williamson, Daniel; Blaker, Adam T. orcid:0000-0001-5454-0131 Hampton, Charlotte; Salter, James. 2015 Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching. Climate Dynamics, 45 (5). 1299-1324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z 2023-02-04T19:40:46Z We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing structural biases in climate models at the model development stage. We illustrate the method using an investigation of the potential to improve upon known ocean circulation biases in a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre Climate Model; HadCM3). In particular, we use history matching to investigate whether or not the behaviour of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is known to be too strong in HadCM3, represents a structural bias that could be corrected using the model parameters. We find that it is possible to improve the ACC strength using the parameters and observe that doing this leads to more realistic representations of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres, sea surface salinities (both globally and in the North Atlantic), sea surface temperatures in the sinking regions in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic Deep Water flows, global precipitation, wind fields and sea level pressure. We then use history matching to locate a region of parameter space predicted not to contain structural biases for ACC and SSTs that is around 1 % of the original parameter space. We explore qualitative features of this space and show that certain key ocean and atmosphere parameters must be tuned carefully together in order to locate climates that satisfy our chosen metrics. Our study shows that attempts to tune climate model parameters that vary only a handful of parameters relevant to a given process at a time will not be as successful or as efficient as history matching. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Southern Ocean Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Climate Dynamics 45 5-6 1299 1324 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing structural biases in climate models at the model development stage. We illustrate the method using an investigation of the potential to improve upon known ocean circulation biases in a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre Climate Model; HadCM3). In particular, we use history matching to investigate whether or not the behaviour of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is known to be too strong in HadCM3, represents a structural bias that could be corrected using the model parameters. We find that it is possible to improve the ACC strength using the parameters and observe that doing this leads to more realistic representations of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres, sea surface salinities (both globally and in the North Atlantic), sea surface temperatures in the sinking regions in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic Deep Water flows, global precipitation, wind fields and sea level pressure. We then use history matching to locate a region of parameter space predicted not to contain structural biases for ACC and SSTs that is around 1 % of the original parameter space. We explore qualitative features of this space and show that certain key ocean and atmosphere parameters must be tuned carefully together in order to locate climates that satisfy our chosen metrics. Our study shows that attempts to tune climate model parameters that vary only a handful of parameters relevant to a given process at a time will not be as successful or as efficient as history matching. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Williamson, Daniel Blaker, Adam T. Hampton, Charlotte Salter, James |
spellingShingle |
Williamson, Daniel Blaker, Adam T. Hampton, Charlotte Salter, James Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
author_facet |
Williamson, Daniel Blaker, Adam T. Hampton, Charlotte Salter, James |
author_sort |
Williamson, Daniel |
title |
Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
title_short |
Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
title_full |
Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
title_fullStr |
Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
title_sort |
identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/1/Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509284/1/Williamson_et_al_StructErrorPaper.pdf Williamson, Daniel; Blaker, Adam T. orcid:0000-0001-5454-0131 Hampton, Charlotte; Salter, James. 2015 Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching. Climate Dynamics, 45 (5). 1299-1324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2378-z |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
45 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
1299 |
op_container_end_page |
1324 |
_version_ |
1766248792673222656 |