Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:508502 2023-05-15T13:48:08+02:00 Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 Jevrejeva, S. Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. 2014-10 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508502/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508502/1/ERL2014UpperLimit.pdf en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508502/1/ERL2014UpperLimit.pdf Jevrejeva, S. orcid:0000-0001-9490-4665 Grinsted, A.; Moore, J.C. 2014 Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (10). 104008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008> cc_by CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2014 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 2023-02-04T19:40:24Z We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Environmental Research Letters 9 10 104008 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jevrejeva, S. Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. |
spellingShingle |
Jevrejeva, S. Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
author_facet |
Jevrejeva, S. Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. |
author_sort |
Jevrejeva, S. |
title |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_short |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_full |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_fullStr |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
title_sort |
upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508502/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508502/1/ERL2014UpperLimit.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508502/1/ERL2014UpperLimit.pdf Jevrejeva, S. orcid:0000-0001-9490-4665 Grinsted, A.; Moore, J.C. 2014 Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (10). 104008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 |
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Environmental Research Letters |
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9 |
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10 |
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104008 |
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1766248776035467264 |