Impacts of climate change on temperature (air and sea)

• Main Authors: Dye, Stephen, Hughes, Sarah L., Tinker, Jonathan, Berry, David I., Holliday, N. Penny, Kent, Elizabeth C., Kennington, Kevin, Inall, Mark, Smythe, Tim, Nolan, Glenn, Lyons, Kieran, Adres, Olga, Beszczynska-Möller, Agnieszka
• Other Authors: Baxter, J.M., Buckley, P.J., Wallace, C.J.
• Format: Book Part
• Language: unknown
• Published: MCCIP Secretariat 2013
• Subjects: North Atlantic; North East Atlantic; Northeast Atlantic
• Online Access: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/506612/; http://www.mccip.org.uk/media/13164/2013arc_backingpapers_1_temp.pdf

Relative to the underlying warming trend during the 20th century the surface waters averaged over the north Atlantic were cool in the period between 1900 and 1930, warm from 1930 to 1960, cool between the late 1960s and 1990 and then warm from 1990 to present. The warming observed in the last three decades has been particularly strong in parts of the north-east Atlantic, with the sea surface around the UK and Ireland warming at rates up to six times greater than the global average. It remains difficult to fully distinguish the natural variations in temperature from those due to anthropogenic influence (including emissions of carbon dioxide, CO 2). Marine Air Temperatures over the Northeast Atlantic and southern North Sea have warmed rapidly over the last 30 years. The observed warming is greatest in the Northeast Atlantic with warming rates of over 0.6 °C decade-1. Similarly, sea-surface temperatures (SST) in UK coastal waters and in the Northeast Atlantic have risen by between 0.1 and 0.5 ̊C decade-1 since the 1980s. In UK Coastal Waters the most rapid rises have been observed in the Southern North Sea (Region 2) and off the western coast of Scotland (Region 6 and the southern part of Region 7) at a rate between 0.2 and 0.4 ̊C decade-1. Recent cold years have meant that linear trends in Marine Air Temperature in other regions (Regions 1, 3 and much of regions 4 and 5) are not statistically significant. The temperature of the upper ocean (0-800m) to the west and north of the UK has been generally rising since the 1970s (Region 8) and 1980s (Region 7). Superimposed on the underlying upward trend are decadal scale patterns of variability, fluctuating between relative maxima around 1960 and in the 2000s, with relative minima in the 1980s and 1990s. Despite the long-term warming trends in evidence in most regions, whether over the century or last 30 years, temperature evolution at a location has not been linear or smooth with some short periods of rapid change over a few years and others of little change. Since 2008 ...