A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change
Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggrega...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/1/N503655JA.pdf http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/044018/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_044018.pdf |
id |
ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:503655 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:503655 2023-05-15T18:40:30+02:00 A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change Warszawski, Lila Friend, Andrew Ostberg, Sebastian Frieler, Katja Lucht, Wolfgang Schaphoff, Sibyll Beerling, David Cadule, Patricia Ciais, Philippe Clark, Douglas B. Kahana, Ron Ito, Akihiko Keribin, Rozenn Kleidon, Axel Lomas, Mark Nishina, Kazuya Pavlick, Ryan Rademacher, Tim Tito Buechner, Matthias Piontek, Franziska Schewe, Jacob Serdeczny, Olivia Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim 2013-10 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/1/N503655JA.pdf http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/044018/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_044018.pdf en eng IOP Publishing https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/1/N503655JA.pdf Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. 2013 A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (4), 044018. 10, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018> cc_by CC-BY Meteorology and Climatology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018 2023-02-04T19:37:58Z Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Canada Environmental Research Letters 8 4 044018 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Warszawski, Lila Friend, Andrew Ostberg, Sebastian Frieler, Katja Lucht, Wolfgang Schaphoff, Sibyll Beerling, David Cadule, Patricia Ciais, Philippe Clark, Douglas B. Kahana, Ron Ito, Akihiko Keribin, Rozenn Kleidon, Axel Lomas, Mark Nishina, Kazuya Pavlick, Ryan Rademacher, Tim Tito Buechner, Matthias Piontek, Franziska Schewe, Jacob Serdeczny, Olivia Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth's ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Warszawski, Lila Friend, Andrew Ostberg, Sebastian Frieler, Katja Lucht, Wolfgang Schaphoff, Sibyll Beerling, David Cadule, Patricia Ciais, Philippe Clark, Douglas B. Kahana, Ron Ito, Akihiko Keribin, Rozenn Kleidon, Axel Lomas, Mark Nishina, Kazuya Pavlick, Ryan Rademacher, Tim Tito Buechner, Matthias Piontek, Franziska Schewe, Jacob Serdeczny, Olivia Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
author_facet |
Warszawski, Lila Friend, Andrew Ostberg, Sebastian Frieler, Katja Lucht, Wolfgang Schaphoff, Sibyll Beerling, David Cadule, Patricia Ciais, Philippe Clark, Douglas B. Kahana, Ron Ito, Akihiko Keribin, Rozenn Kleidon, Axel Lomas, Mark Nishina, Kazuya Pavlick, Ryan Rademacher, Tim Tito Buechner, Matthias Piontek, Franziska Schewe, Jacob Serdeczny, Olivia Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
author_sort |
Warszawski, Lila |
title |
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
title_short |
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
title_full |
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
title_sort |
multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/1/N503655JA.pdf http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/044018/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_044018.pdf |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/503655/1/N503655JA.pdf Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. 2013 A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (4), 044018. 10, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044018 |
_version_ |
1766229873246863360 |