Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures
Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperat...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:502123 2023-05-15T17:33:25+02:00 Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. Jevrejeva, S. 2013-04-02 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502123/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502123/1/5369.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502123/1/5369.full.pdf Grinsted, A.; Moore, J.C.; Jevrejeva, S. orcid:0000-0001-9490-4665 . 2013 Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (14). 5369-5373. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110 2023-02-04T19:37:04Z Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M). Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Pacific Indian Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 14 5369 5373 |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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English |
description |
Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. Jevrejeva, S. |
spellingShingle |
Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. Jevrejeva, S. Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
author_facet |
Grinsted, A. Moore, J.C. Jevrejeva, S. |
author_sort |
Grinsted, A. |
title |
Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
title_short |
Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
title_full |
Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
title_fullStr |
Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
title_sort |
projected atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502123/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502123/1/5369.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110 |
geographic |
Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/502123/1/5369.full.pdf Grinsted, A.; Moore, J.C.; Jevrejeva, S. orcid:0000-0001-9490-4665 . 2013 Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (14). 5369-5373. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209980110 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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110 |
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14 |
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5369 |
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5373 |
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