An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models
This paper examines the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 models used in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005. Many of the models have an annual SIE cycle that differs markedly from tha...
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American Meteorological Society
2013
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:501607 2023-05-15T13:48:07+02:00 An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models Turner, John Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Phillips, Tony Marshall, Gareth J. Hosking, J. Scott 2013-03 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/501607/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/501607/1/jcli-d-12-00068.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1 en eng American Meteorological Society https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/501607/1/jcli-d-12-00068.1.pdf Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Phillips, Tony orcid:0000-0002-3058-9157 Marshall, Gareth J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Hosking, J. Scott orcid:0000-0002-3646-3504 . 2013 An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 26 (5). 1473-1484. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1> Marine Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2013 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1 2023-02-04T19:36:48Z This paper examines the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 models used in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005. Many of the models have an annual SIE cycle that differs markedly from that observed over the last 30 years. The majority of models have too small of an SIE at the minimum in February, while several of the models have less than two-thirds of the observed SIE at the September maximum. In contrast to the satellite data, which exhibit a slight increase in SIE, the mean SIE of the models over 1979–2005 shows a decrease in each month, with the greatest multimodel mean percentage monthly decline of 13.6% decade−1 in February and the greatest absolute loss of ice of −0.40 × 106 km2 decade−1 in September. The models have very large differences in SIE over 1860–2005. Most of the control runs have statistically significant trends in SIE over their full time span, and all of the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-nineteenth century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979–2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Journal of Climate 26 5 1473 1484 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Marine Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Marine Sciences Turner, John Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Phillips, Tony Marshall, Gareth J. Hosking, J. Scott An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models |
topic_facet |
Marine Sciences |
description |
This paper examines the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 models used in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005. Many of the models have an annual SIE cycle that differs markedly from that observed over the last 30 years. The majority of models have too small of an SIE at the minimum in February, while several of the models have less than two-thirds of the observed SIE at the September maximum. In contrast to the satellite data, which exhibit a slight increase in SIE, the mean SIE of the models over 1979–2005 shows a decrease in each month, with the greatest multimodel mean percentage monthly decline of 13.6% decade−1 in February and the greatest absolute loss of ice of −0.40 × 106 km2 decade−1 in September. The models have very large differences in SIE over 1860–2005. Most of the control runs have statistically significant trends in SIE over their full time span, and all of the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-nineteenth century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979–2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turner, John Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Phillips, Tony Marshall, Gareth J. Hosking, J. Scott |
author_facet |
Turner, John Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Phillips, Tony Marshall, Gareth J. Hosking, J. Scott |
author_sort |
Turner, John |
title |
An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models |
title_short |
An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models |
title_full |
An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models |
title_fullStr |
An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models |
title_sort |
initial assessment of antarctic sea ice extent in the cmip5 models |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/501607/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/501607/1/jcli-d-12-00068.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/501607/1/jcli-d-12-00068.1.pdf Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Phillips, Tony orcid:0000-0002-3058-9157 Marshall, Gareth J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Hosking, J. Scott orcid:0000-0002-3646-3504 . 2013 An initial assessment of Antarctic Sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 26 (5). 1473-1484. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1473 |
op_container_end_page |
1484 |
_version_ |
1766248638832443392 |