Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management
Since their discovery, Antarctic subglacial lakes have become of great interest to the science community. It is hypothesized that they may hold unique forms of biological life and that they hold detailed sedimentary records of past climate change. According to the latest inventory, a total of 387 su...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:443354 2023-05-15T13:48:07+02:00 Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. 2012 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/443354/ unknown Brito, M.P.; Griffiths, G.; Mowlem, M. 2012 Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management. Journal of Glaciology, 58 (212). 1085-1097. https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J007 <https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J007> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2012 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J007 2023-02-04T19:36:05Z Since their discovery, Antarctic subglacial lakes have become of great interest to the science community. It is hypothesized that they may hold unique forms of biological life and that they hold detailed sedimentary records of past climate change. According to the latest inventory, a total of 387 subglacial lakes have been identified in Antarctica (Wright and Siegert, 2011). However, exploration using scientific probes has yet to be performed. We propose a generic, formal approach to manage the operational risk of deploying probes during clean access to subglacial lake exploration. A representation of the entire probe deployment process is captured in a Markov chain. The transition from one state to the next depends on several factors, including reliability of components and processes. We use fault trees to quantify the probability of failure of the complex processes that must take place to facilitate the transition from one state to another. Therefore, the formal framework consists of integrating a Markov chain, fault trees, component and subsystem reliability data and expert judgment. To illustrate its application we describe how the approach can be used to address a series of what-if scenarios, using the intended Ellsworth Subglacial Lake probe deployment as a case study. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Journal of Glaciology Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Ellsworth Subglacial Lake ENVELOPE(-90.500,-90.500,-79.000,-79.000) Journal of Glaciology 58 212 1085 1097 |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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Since their discovery, Antarctic subglacial lakes have become of great interest to the science community. It is hypothesized that they may hold unique forms of biological life and that they hold detailed sedimentary records of past climate change. According to the latest inventory, a total of 387 subglacial lakes have been identified in Antarctica (Wright and Siegert, 2011). However, exploration using scientific probes has yet to be performed. We propose a generic, formal approach to manage the operational risk of deploying probes during clean access to subglacial lake exploration. A representation of the entire probe deployment process is captured in a Markov chain. The transition from one state to the next depends on several factors, including reliability of components and processes. We use fault trees to quantify the probability of failure of the complex processes that must take place to facilitate the transition from one state to another. Therefore, the formal framework consists of integrating a Markov chain, fault trees, component and subsystem reliability data and expert judgment. To illustrate its application we describe how the approach can be used to address a series of what-if scenarios, using the intended Ellsworth Subglacial Lake probe deployment as a case study. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. |
spellingShingle |
Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
author_facet |
Brito, M.P. Griffiths, G. Mowlem, M. |
author_sort |
Brito, M.P. |
title |
Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
title_short |
Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
title_full |
Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
title_fullStr |
Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
title_sort |
exploring antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/443354/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-90.500,-90.500,-79.000,-79.000) |
geographic |
Antarctic Ellsworth Subglacial Lake |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ellsworth Subglacial Lake |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Journal of Glaciology |
op_relation |
Brito, M.P.; Griffiths, G.; Mowlem, M. 2012 Exploring Antarctic subglacial lakes with scientific probes: a formal probabilistic approach for operational risk management. Journal of Glaciology, 58 (212). 1085-1097. https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J007 <https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J007> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG12J007 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
58 |
container_issue |
212 |
container_start_page |
1085 |
op_container_end_page |
1097 |
_version_ |
1766248626961514496 |