A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies
Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is deco...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:377 2024-06-09T07:44:04+00:00 A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. 2006 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/377/ http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026679.shtml https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 unknown Jupp, Tim E.; Taylor, Christopher M. orcid:0000-0002-0120-3198 Balzter, Heiko; George, Charles T. 2006 A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679> Meteorology and Climatology Ecology and Environment Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2006 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 2024-05-15T08:39:04Z Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Siberia Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 33 14 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology Ecology and Environment |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Ecology and Environment Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology Ecology and Environment |
description |
Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. |
author_facet |
Jupp, Tim E. Taylor, Christopher M. Balzter, Heiko George, Charles T. |
author_sort |
Jupp, Tim E. |
title |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_short |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_full |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_fullStr |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_full_unstemmed |
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
title_sort |
statistical model linking siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/377/ http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026679.shtml https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Siberia |
op_relation |
Jupp, Tim E.; Taylor, Christopher M. orcid:0000-0002-0120-3198 Balzter, Heiko; George, Charles T. 2006 A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026679 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
14 |
_version_ |
1801372867730866176 |