Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept
Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of th...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:18239 2023-05-15T13:45:12+02:00 Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept Gutt, Julian Zurell, Damaris Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Cheung, William Clark, Melody S. Convey, Peter Danis, Bruno David, Bruno De Broyer, Claude Di Prisco, Guido Griffiths, Huw Laffont, Rémi Peck, Lloyd S. Pierrat, Benjamin Riddle, Martin J. Saucède, Thomas Turner, John Verde, Cinzia Wang, Zhaomin Grimm, Volker 2012 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18239/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18239/1/Correlative_and_dynamic.pdf https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/2610 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18239/1/Correlative_and_dynamic.pdf Gutt, Julian; Zurell, Damaris; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Cheung, William; Clark, Melody S. orcid:0000-0002-3442-3824 Convey, Peter orcid:0000-0001-8497-9903 Danis, Bruno; David, Bruno; De Broyer, Claude; Di Prisco, Guido; Griffiths, Huw orcid:0000-0003-1764-223X Laffont, Rémi; Peck, Lloyd S. orcid:0000-0003-3479-6791 Pierrat, Benjamin; Riddle, Martin J.; Saucède, Thomas; Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Verde, Cinzia; Wang, Zhaomin orcid:0000-0001-7103-6025 Grimm, Volker. 2012 Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept. Polar Research, 31. 23, pp. https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091 <https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091> cc_by_nc_4 CC-BY-NC Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2012 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091 2023-02-04T19:31:38Z Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of the future of the Antarctic biosphere are increasingly demanded by decision makers and the public, and are of fundamental scientific interest. This paper briefly reviews existing predictive models applied to Antarctic ecosystems before providing a conceptual framework for the further development of spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models. The concept suggests how to improve approaches to relating species’ habitat description to the physical environment, for which a case study on sea urchins is presented. In addition, the concept integrates existing and new ideas to consider dynamic components, particularly information on the natural history of key species, from physiological experiments and biomolecular analyses. Thereby, we identify and critically discuss gaps in knowledge and methodological limitations. These refer to process understanding of biological complexity, the need for high spatial resolution oceanographic data from the entire water column, and the use of data from biomolecular analyses in support of such ecological approaches. Our goal is to motivate the research community to contribute data and knowledge to a holistic, Antarctic-specific, macroecological framework. Such a framework will facilitate the integration of theoretical and empirical work in Antarctica, improving our mechanistic understanding of this globally influential ecoregion, and supporting actions to secure this biodiversity hotspot and its ecosystem services. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Polar Research Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic The Antarctic Polar Research 31 1 11091 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of the future of the Antarctic biosphere are increasingly demanded by decision makers and the public, and are of fundamental scientific interest. This paper briefly reviews existing predictive models applied to Antarctic ecosystems before providing a conceptual framework for the further development of spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models. The concept suggests how to improve approaches to relating species’ habitat description to the physical environment, for which a case study on sea urchins is presented. In addition, the concept integrates existing and new ideas to consider dynamic components, particularly information on the natural history of key species, from physiological experiments and biomolecular analyses. Thereby, we identify and critically discuss gaps in knowledge and methodological limitations. These refer to process understanding of biological complexity, the need for high spatial resolution oceanographic data from the entire water column, and the use of data from biomolecular analyses in support of such ecological approaches. Our goal is to motivate the research community to contribute data and knowledge to a holistic, Antarctic-specific, macroecological framework. Such a framework will facilitate the integration of theoretical and empirical work in Antarctica, improving our mechanistic understanding of this globally influential ecoregion, and supporting actions to secure this biodiversity hotspot and its ecosystem services. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gutt, Julian Zurell, Damaris Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Cheung, William Clark, Melody S. Convey, Peter Danis, Bruno David, Bruno De Broyer, Claude Di Prisco, Guido Griffiths, Huw Laffont, Rémi Peck, Lloyd S. Pierrat, Benjamin Riddle, Martin J. Saucède, Thomas Turner, John Verde, Cinzia Wang, Zhaomin Grimm, Volker |
spellingShingle |
Gutt, Julian Zurell, Damaris Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Cheung, William Clark, Melody S. Convey, Peter Danis, Bruno David, Bruno De Broyer, Claude Di Prisco, Guido Griffiths, Huw Laffont, Rémi Peck, Lloyd S. Pierrat, Benjamin Riddle, Martin J. Saucède, Thomas Turner, John Verde, Cinzia Wang, Zhaomin Grimm, Volker Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
author_facet |
Gutt, Julian Zurell, Damaris Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Cheung, William Clark, Melody S. Convey, Peter Danis, Bruno David, Bruno De Broyer, Claude Di Prisco, Guido Griffiths, Huw Laffont, Rémi Peck, Lloyd S. Pierrat, Benjamin Riddle, Martin J. Saucède, Thomas Turner, John Verde, Cinzia Wang, Zhaomin Grimm, Volker |
author_sort |
Gutt, Julian |
title |
Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
title_short |
Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
title_full |
Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
title_fullStr |
Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
title_full_unstemmed |
Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
title_sort |
correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18239/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18239/1/Correlative_and_dynamic.pdf https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/2610 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Polar Research |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Polar Research |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/18239/1/Correlative_and_dynamic.pdf Gutt, Julian; Zurell, Damaris; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Cheung, William; Clark, Melody S. orcid:0000-0002-3442-3824 Convey, Peter orcid:0000-0001-8497-9903 Danis, Bruno; David, Bruno; De Broyer, Claude; Di Prisco, Guido; Griffiths, Huw orcid:0000-0003-1764-223X Laffont, Rémi; Peck, Lloyd S. orcid:0000-0003-3479-6791 Pierrat, Benjamin; Riddle, Martin J.; Saucède, Thomas; Turner, John orcid:0000-0002-6111-5122 Verde, Cinzia; Wang, Zhaomin orcid:0000-0001-7103-6025 Grimm, Volker. 2012 Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept. Polar Research, 31. 23, pp. https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091 <https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091> |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091 |
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Polar Research |
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31 |
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11091 |
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1766216594550161408 |