Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability
The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:174704 2023-05-15T17:34:28+02:00 Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability Mackay, Edward B.L. Bahaj, AbuBakr S. Challenor, Peter G. 2010-08 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/174704/ unknown Mackay, Edward B.L.; Bahaj, AbuBakr S.; Challenor, Peter G. 2010 Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability. Renewable Energy, 35 (8). 1809-1819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2010 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027 2023-02-04T19:35:37Z The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Renewable Energy 35 8 1809 1819 |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mackay, Edward B.L. Bahaj, AbuBakr S. Challenor, Peter G. |
spellingShingle |
Mackay, Edward B.L. Bahaj, AbuBakr S. Challenor, Peter G. Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
author_facet |
Mackay, Edward B.L. Bahaj, AbuBakr S. Challenor, Peter G. |
author_sort |
Mackay, Edward B.L. |
title |
Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
title_short |
Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
title_full |
Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
title_sort |
uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/174704/ |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Mackay, Edward B.L.; Bahaj, AbuBakr S.; Challenor, Peter G. 2010 Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment part 2: variability and predictability. Renewable Energy, 35 (8). 1809-1819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027 |
container_title |
Renewable Energy |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1809 |
op_container_end_page |
1819 |
_version_ |
1766133326229274624 |