Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing
The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth hi...
Published in: | Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology |
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14871/ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003101821100157X |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:14871 2023-05-15T13:45:11+02:00 Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing Dolan, Aisling M. Haywood, Alan M. Hill, Daniel J. Dowsett, Harry J. Hunter, Stephen J. Lunt, Daniel J. Pickering, Steven J. 2011-08-15 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14871/ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003101821100157X unknown Elsevier Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J. 2011 Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 309 (1-2). 98-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.030 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.030> Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Earth Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2011 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.030 2023-02-04T19:29:31Z The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic British Antarctic Survey Greenland Ice Sheet Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 309 1-2 98 110 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Earth Sciences Dolan, Aisling M. Haywood, Alan M. Hill, Daniel J. Dowsett, Harry J. Hunter, Stephen J. Lunt, Daniel J. Pickering, Steven J. Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Earth Sciences |
description |
The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dolan, Aisling M. Haywood, Alan M. Hill, Daniel J. Dowsett, Harry J. Hunter, Stephen J. Lunt, Daniel J. Pickering, Steven J. |
author_facet |
Dolan, Aisling M. Haywood, Alan M. Hill, Daniel J. Dowsett, Harry J. Hunter, Stephen J. Lunt, Daniel J. Pickering, Steven J. |
author_sort |
Dolan, Aisling M. |
title |
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
title_short |
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
title_full |
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
title_sort |
sensitivity of pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14871/ http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003101821100157X |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic British Antarctic Survey Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic British Antarctic Survey Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J. 2011 Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 309 (1-2). 98-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.030 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.030> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.030 |
container_title |
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology |
container_volume |
309 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
98 |
op_container_end_page |
110 |
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1766215776209993728 |