Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level
Long-term records from meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula show strong rising trends in the annual duration of melting conditions. In each case, the trend is statistically significant and represents a major increase in the potential for melting; for example, between 1950 and 2000 the...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:145 2024-06-09T07:40:06+00:00 Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level Vaughan, David G. 2006 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/145/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/145/1/Recent%20Trends%20in%20Melting%20Conditions%20on%20the%20Antarctic%20Peninsula%20and%20Their%20Implications%20for%20Ice%20sheet%20Mass%20Balance%20and%20Sea%20Level.pdf https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2 en eng Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/145/1/Recent%20Trends%20in%20Melting%20Conditions%20on%20the%20Antarctic%20Peninsula%20and%20Their%20Implications%20for%20Ice%20sheet%20Mass%20Balance%20and%20Sea%20Level.pdf Vaughan, David G. orcid:0000-0002-9065-0570 . 2006 Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 38 (1). 147-152. https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2> Glaciology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2006 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2 2024-05-15T08:39:04Z Long-term records from meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula show strong rising trends in the annual duration of melting conditions. In each case, the trend is statistically significant and represents a major increase in the potential for melting; for example, between 1950 and 2000 the record from Faraday/Vernadsky Station showed a 74% increase in the number of positive degree-days (PDDs). A simple parameterization of the likely effects of the warming on the rate of snow melt suggests an increase across the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet from 28 ± 12 Gt a–1 in 1950, to 54 ± 26 Gt a–1 by 2000. Given a similar rate of warming over the next 50 years this may reach 100 ± 46 Gt a–1. The majority of this increased meltwater does not drain into the sea but is refrozen in the ice sheet, and it is difficult to predict the fraction of ablation that will become runoff; however, a calculation based on an established criterion for runoff indicates that the contribution from the Antarctic Peninsula, as a direct and immediate response to climate warming is significant, equivalent to (0.008–0.055) mm a–1 of global sea level rise. Given future warming this could easily treble in the coming 50 years. This contribution due to increased runoff could be augmented by any dynamic imbalance in the glaciers draining the ice sheet. This finding appears to contradict the conclusions of previous assessments, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which considered the contribution of runoff from Antarctica to sea level rise would be insignificant. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic and Alpine Research Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Arctic Ice Sheet Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Faraday ENVELOPE(-64.256,-64.256,-65.246,-65.246) The Antarctic Vernadsky Station ENVELOPE(-64.257,-64.257,-65.245,-65.245) |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
Glaciology Vaughan, David G. Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
topic_facet |
Glaciology |
description |
Long-term records from meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula show strong rising trends in the annual duration of melting conditions. In each case, the trend is statistically significant and represents a major increase in the potential for melting; for example, between 1950 and 2000 the record from Faraday/Vernadsky Station showed a 74% increase in the number of positive degree-days (PDDs). A simple parameterization of the likely effects of the warming on the rate of snow melt suggests an increase across the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet from 28 ± 12 Gt a–1 in 1950, to 54 ± 26 Gt a–1 by 2000. Given a similar rate of warming over the next 50 years this may reach 100 ± 46 Gt a–1. The majority of this increased meltwater does not drain into the sea but is refrozen in the ice sheet, and it is difficult to predict the fraction of ablation that will become runoff; however, a calculation based on an established criterion for runoff indicates that the contribution from the Antarctic Peninsula, as a direct and immediate response to climate warming is significant, equivalent to (0.008–0.055) mm a–1 of global sea level rise. Given future warming this could easily treble in the coming 50 years. This contribution due to increased runoff could be augmented by any dynamic imbalance in the glaciers draining the ice sheet. This finding appears to contradict the conclusions of previous assessments, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which considered the contribution of runoff from Antarctica to sea level rise would be insignificant. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vaughan, David G. |
author_facet |
Vaughan, David G. |
author_sort |
Vaughan, David G. |
title |
Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
title_short |
Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
title_full |
Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
title_fullStr |
Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
title_sort |
recent trends in melting conditions on the antarctic peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level |
publisher |
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/145/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/145/1/Recent%20Trends%20in%20Melting%20Conditions%20on%20the%20Antarctic%20Peninsula%20and%20Their%20Implications%20for%20Ice%20sheet%20Mass%20Balance%20and%20Sea%20Level.pdf https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.256,-64.256,-65.246,-65.246) ENVELOPE(-64.257,-64.257,-65.245,-65.245) |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Faraday The Antarctic Vernadsky Station |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Faraday The Antarctic Vernadsky Station |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic and Alpine Research Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Arctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic and Alpine Research Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Arctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/145/1/Recent%20Trends%20in%20Melting%20Conditions%20on%20the%20Antarctic%20Peninsula%20and%20Their%20Implications%20for%20Ice%20sheet%20Mass%20Balance%20and%20Sea%20Level.pdf Vaughan, David G. orcid:0000-0002-9065-0570 . 2006 Recent trends in melting conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula and their implications for ice-sheet mass balance and sea level. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 38 (1). 147-152. https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)038[0147:RTIMCO]2.0.CO;2 |
_version_ |
1801383591186268160 |