On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability
The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a ti...
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American Meteorological Society
2011
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:14050 2023-05-15T17:26:45+02:00 On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability Franzke, Christian Woollings, Tim 2011 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050/1/2010jcli3739%252E1.pdf http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 en eng American Meteorological Society https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050/1/2010jcli3739%252E1.pdf Franzke, Christian; Woollings, Tim. 2011 On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability. Journal of Climate, 24 (2). 466-472. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1> Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2011 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 2023-02-04T19:28:57Z The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Journal of Climate 24 2 466 472 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences Franzke, Christian Woollings, Tim On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Franzke, Christian Woollings, Tim |
author_facet |
Franzke, Christian Woollings, Tim |
author_sort |
Franzke, Christian |
title |
On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability |
title_short |
On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability |
title_full |
On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability |
title_fullStr |
On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability |
title_sort |
on the persistence and predictability properties of north atlantic climate variability |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050/1/2010jcli3739%252E1.pdf http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14050/1/2010jcli3739%252E1.pdf Franzke, Christian; Woollings, Tim. 2011 On the persistence and predictability properties of North Atlantic climate variability. Journal of Climate, 24 (2). 466-472. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
466 |
op_container_end_page |
472 |
_version_ |
1766118554750418944 |