Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework
Models frequently contain parameters that are poorly constrained by observations or are a product of simplification during model formulation. In the case of Earth System Models (ESMs), which typically comprise several earth system components more commonly modelled separately, there can be many such...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:123637 2023-05-15T18:18:33+02:00 Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework Yool, A. Price, A.R. Marsh, R. Cox, S.J. Shepherd, J.G. 2005 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/123637/ http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/09185/EGU05-J-09185-2.pdf unknown Yool, A. orcid:0000-0002-9879-2776 Price, A.R.; Marsh, R.; Cox, S.J.; Shepherd, J.G. 2005 Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 7. 9185. Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2005 ftnerc 2023-02-04T19:34:32Z Models frequently contain parameters that are poorly constrained by observations or are a product of simplification during model formulation. In the case of Earth System Models (ESMs), which typically comprise several earth system components more commonly modelled separately, there can be many such parameters. Consequently, with so many degrees of freedom it can be difficult to tune a model to observations in preparation for experiments. The Grid-enabled GENIE framework provides an interface to a Design Search and Optimisation package which we exploit to adopt a Response Surface Modelling (RSM) approach to tune an ESM comprising a 3D ocean, sea-ice and a simplified 2D atmosphere (GENIE c-GOLDSTEIN). This approach uses a small (order 100) number of computationally-expensive simulations to sample multi-dimensional (order 12) parameter space with respect to a [model - observations] error function. These samples are pooled to generate a response surface (using a Kriging method) to estimate the behaviour of this error function across parameter space. By finding the minimum point on this surface, simulating at this point, and then adding the new simulation to the pool to regenerate the response surface, the error minimum is successively refined. Further work evaluates the performance of this method by attempting to recover model parameters in twin studies. The consequences of the choice of error function (e.g. state variables versus fluxes) are also examined. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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Models frequently contain parameters that are poorly constrained by observations or are a product of simplification during model formulation. In the case of Earth System Models (ESMs), which typically comprise several earth system components more commonly modelled separately, there can be many such parameters. Consequently, with so many degrees of freedom it can be difficult to tune a model to observations in preparation for experiments. The Grid-enabled GENIE framework provides an interface to a Design Search and Optimisation package which we exploit to adopt a Response Surface Modelling (RSM) approach to tune an ESM comprising a 3D ocean, sea-ice and a simplified 2D atmosphere (GENIE c-GOLDSTEIN). This approach uses a small (order 100) number of computationally-expensive simulations to sample multi-dimensional (order 12) parameter space with respect to a [model - observations] error function. These samples are pooled to generate a response surface (using a Kriging method) to estimate the behaviour of this error function across parameter space. By finding the minimum point on this surface, simulating at this point, and then adding the new simulation to the pool to regenerate the response surface, the error minimum is successively refined. Further work evaluates the performance of this method by attempting to recover model parameters in twin studies. The consequences of the choice of error function (e.g. state variables versus fluxes) are also examined. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yool, A. Price, A.R. Marsh, R. Cox, S.J. Shepherd, J.G. |
spellingShingle |
Yool, A. Price, A.R. Marsh, R. Cox, S.J. Shepherd, J.G. Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework |
author_facet |
Yool, A. Price, A.R. Marsh, R. Cox, S.J. Shepherd, J.G. |
author_sort |
Yool, A. |
title |
Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework |
title_short |
Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework |
title_full |
Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework |
title_fullStr |
Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework |
title_full_unstemmed |
Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework |
title_sort |
earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the grid-enabled genie framework |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/123637/ http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/09185/EGU05-J-09185-2.pdf |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Yool, A. orcid:0000-0002-9879-2776 Price, A.R.; Marsh, R.; Cox, S.J.; Shepherd, J.G. 2005 Earth system model optimisation using response surface modelling in the Grid-enabled GENIE framework. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 7. 9185. |
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1766195156097171456 |