An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models
We assess 19 coupled models from the IPCC fourth assessment report archive from the simulation of the 20th century, based on the calculation of " skill scores.'' The models show a wide range of scores when assessed against Antarctic or global measures of large- scale circulation indic...
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American Geophysical Union
2007
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:11712 2023-05-15T13:45:10+02:00 An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models Connolley, William M. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. 2007 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11712/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11712/1/2007GL031648.pdf http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0722/2007GL031648/2007GL031648.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11712/1/2007GL031648.pdf Connolley, William M.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 . 2007 An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (22), L22505. 6, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648> Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Atmospheric Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2007 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648 2023-02-04T19:27:30Z We assess 19 coupled models from the IPCC fourth assessment report archive from the simulation of the 20th century, based on the calculation of " skill scores.'' The models show a wide range of scores when assessed against Antarctic or global measures of large- scale circulation indices. Except for continental mass balance, the model average proves a more reliable estimate than that for any one model. Individual models show a very wide scatter in simulated Antarctic temperature trends over the past century; the large trend over the Antarctic peninsula in winter is not well represented, which makes it clear that whatever has been driving these trends is not well captured by many GCMs. Trends in temperature are clearly linked to the sea ice simulation, another variable that most models do not simulate well. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 34 22 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Atmospheric Sciences Connolley, William M. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology Glaciology Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
We assess 19 coupled models from the IPCC fourth assessment report archive from the simulation of the 20th century, based on the calculation of " skill scores.'' The models show a wide range of scores when assessed against Antarctic or global measures of large- scale circulation indices. Except for continental mass balance, the model average proves a more reliable estimate than that for any one model. Individual models show a very wide scatter in simulated Antarctic temperature trends over the past century; the large trend over the Antarctic peninsula in winter is not well represented, which makes it clear that whatever has been driving these trends is not well captured by many GCMs. Trends in temperature are clearly linked to the sea ice simulation, another variable that most models do not simulate well. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Connolley, William M. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. |
author_facet |
Connolley, William M. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. |
author_sort |
Connolley, William M. |
title |
An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models |
title_short |
An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models |
title_full |
An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models |
title_fullStr |
An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models |
title_full_unstemmed |
An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models |
title_sort |
antarctic assessment of ipcc ar4 coupled models |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11712/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11712/1/2007GL031648.pdf http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0722/2007GL031648/2007GL031648.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/11712/1/2007GL031648.pdf Connolley, William M.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 . 2007 An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (22), L22505. 6, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
22 |
_version_ |
1766214724051009536 |