Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula
Stratospheric change associated with the Antarctic ozone hole is clearly implicated in changing surface climate near 65°S in late summer, in both measurements and models, via downward propagation of height anomalies following the final warming. But one of the largest changes in surface temperature i...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/113/ https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:113 2024-06-09T07:41:07+00:00 Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula Roscoe, H.K. Marshall, G.J. King, J.C. 2006 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/113/ https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 unknown Royal Meteorological Society Roscoe, H.K.; Marshall, G.J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 King, J.C. orcid:0000-0003-3315-7568 . 2006 Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (616). 803-820. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 <https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81> Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2006 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 2024-05-15T08:39:04Z Stratospheric change associated with the Antarctic ozone hole is clearly implicated in changing surface climate near 65°S in late summer, in both measurements and models, via downward propagation of height anomalies following the final warming. But one of the largest changes in surface temperature in Antarctica has occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula at 60 to 65°S in winter, and most of the change at 65°S occurred before the ozone hole. Stratospheric change can cause tropospheric change in Antarctic winter by modifying the reflection and refraction of planetary waves, whereby a stronger stratospheric vortex moves the tropospheric jets polewards, which can modify the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in surface pressure that forces the tropospheric circumpolar winds. We examine stratospheric influence on the SAM in winter by inter-annual correlation of the SAM with the solar-cycle and volcanic aerosols, which act to change forcing of the stratospheric vortex in winter. Correlations are a maximum in June (midwinter) and are significant then, but are poor averaged over winter months. Hence the potential of change in the stratosphere to change Antarctic tropospheric climate in winter by dynamical means is low. This negative result is important given the proven high potential for change in summer by dynamical means. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Midwinter ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) The Antarctic Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 132 616 803 820 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences Roscoe, H.K. Marshall, G.J. King, J.C. Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology Atmospheric Sciences |
description |
Stratospheric change associated with the Antarctic ozone hole is clearly implicated in changing surface climate near 65°S in late summer, in both measurements and models, via downward propagation of height anomalies following the final warming. But one of the largest changes in surface temperature in Antarctica has occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula at 60 to 65°S in winter, and most of the change at 65°S occurred before the ozone hole. Stratospheric change can cause tropospheric change in Antarctic winter by modifying the reflection and refraction of planetary waves, whereby a stronger stratospheric vortex moves the tropospheric jets polewards, which can modify the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in surface pressure that forces the tropospheric circumpolar winds. We examine stratospheric influence on the SAM in winter by inter-annual correlation of the SAM with the solar-cycle and volcanic aerosols, which act to change forcing of the stratospheric vortex in winter. Correlations are a maximum in June (midwinter) and are significant then, but are poor averaged over winter months. Hence the potential of change in the stratosphere to change Antarctic tropospheric climate in winter by dynamical means is low. This negative result is important given the proven high potential for change in summer by dynamical means. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roscoe, H.K. Marshall, G.J. King, J.C. |
author_facet |
Roscoe, H.K. Marshall, G.J. King, J.C. |
author_sort |
Roscoe, H.K. |
title |
Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula |
title_short |
Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula |
title_full |
Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula |
title_fullStr |
Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula |
title_full_unstemmed |
Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula |
title_sort |
low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central antarctic peninsula |
publisher |
Royal Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/113/ https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Midwinter The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Midwinter The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica |
op_relation |
Roscoe, H.K.; Marshall, G.J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 King, J.C. orcid:0000-0003-3315-7568 . 2006 Low potential for stratospheric dynamical change to be implicated in the large winter warming in the central Antarctic Peninsula. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (616). 803-820. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 <https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.81 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
132 |
container_issue |
616 |
container_start_page |
803 |
op_container_end_page |
820 |
_version_ |
1801369544897331200 |