Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface?
Recent studies claim that useful predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) up to several years in advance may be possible using atmospheric models in which the sea surface temperature (SST) is specified from observations. Achieving this goal requires that such models adequately capture...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:105954 2023-05-15T17:32:22+02:00 Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? Josey, Simon A. Kent, Elizabeth C. Sinha, Bablu 2001-12-15 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/105954/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/105954/1/grl14776.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001GL013200/abstract https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/105954/1/grl14776.pdf Josey, Simon A. orcid:0000-0002-1683-8831 Kent, Elizabeth C. orcid:0000-0002-6209-4247 Sinha, Bablu. 2001 Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (24). 4543-4546. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200> Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2001 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200 2023-02-04T19:33:37Z Recent studies claim that useful predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) up to several years in advance may be possible using atmospheric models in which the sea surface temperature (SST) is specified from observations. Achieving this goal requires that such models adequately capture the observed variation in the NAO at interannual as well as interdecadal timescales. We investigate whether this is the case by comparing interannual variability in the HadAM3 atmospheric model with observations in the SOC air-sea flux dataset for 1980-1995. We find that the model NAO time variation does not correspond to that observed, thus claims of multiannual predictability need to be viewed with caution. In addition, analysis of the observations reveals that NAO related SST anomalies do not exert a significant heat flux feedback on the atmosphere at seasonal to interannual timescales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Geophysical Research Letters 28 24 4543 4546 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Recent studies claim that useful predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) up to several years in advance may be possible using atmospheric models in which the sea surface temperature (SST) is specified from observations. Achieving this goal requires that such models adequately capture the observed variation in the NAO at interannual as well as interdecadal timescales. We investigate whether this is the case by comparing interannual variability in the HadAM3 atmospheric model with observations in the SOC air-sea flux dataset for 1980-1995. We find that the model NAO time variation does not correspond to that observed, thus claims of multiannual predictability need to be viewed with caution. In addition, analysis of the observations reveals that NAO related SST anomalies do not exert a significant heat flux feedback on the atmosphere at seasonal to interannual timescales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Josey, Simon A. Kent, Elizabeth C. Sinha, Bablu |
spellingShingle |
Josey, Simon A. Kent, Elizabeth C. Sinha, Bablu Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? |
author_facet |
Josey, Simon A. Kent, Elizabeth C. Sinha, Bablu |
author_sort |
Josey, Simon A. |
title |
Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? |
title_short |
Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? |
title_full |
Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? |
title_fullStr |
Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? |
title_sort |
can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent nao related variability at the air-sea interface? |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/105954/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/105954/1/grl14776.pdf http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001GL013200/abstract https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/105954/1/grl14776.pdf Josey, Simon A. orcid:0000-0002-1683-8831 Kent, Elizabeth C. orcid:0000-0002-6209-4247 Sinha, Bablu. 2001 Can a state of the art atmospheric general circulation model reproduce recent NAO related variability at the air-sea interface? Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (24). 4543-4546. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013200 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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28 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
4543 |
op_container_end_page |
4546 |
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1766130436159832064 |