Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...

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Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., McGuire, A. David, Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176
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spelling ftneicon:oai:rour.neicon.ru:rour/314176 2023-05-15T14:58:36+02:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Pokrovsky, Oleg S. 2016 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 eng eng vtls:000576414 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 Environmental research letters. 2016. Vol. 11. P. 034014 (1-13) вечная мерзлота углеродный баланс биомасса статьи в журналах info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftneicon https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2020-07-21T12:37:32Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost вечная мерзлота NORA (National aggregator of open repositories of Russian universities) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014
institution Open Polar
collection NORA (National aggregator of open repositories of Russian universities)
op_collection_id ftneicon
language English
topic вечная мерзлота
углеродный баланс
биомасса
spellingShingle вечная мерзлота
углеродный баланс
биомасса
Abbott, Benjamin W.
Jones, Jeremy B.
Schuur, Edward A. G.
Chapin, F. Stuart, III
Bowden, William B.
Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
Epstein, Howard E.
Flannigan, Michael D.
Harms, Tamara K.
Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
McGuire, A. David
Natali, Susan M.
Rocha, Adrian V.
Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
topic_facet вечная мерзлота
углеродный баланс
биомасса
description As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Abbott, Benjamin W.
Jones, Jeremy B.
Schuur, Edward A. G.
Chapin, F. Stuart, III
Bowden, William B.
Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
Epstein, Howard E.
Flannigan, Michael D.
Harms, Tamara K.
Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
McGuire, A. David
Natali, Susan M.
Rocha, Adrian V.
Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
author_facet Abbott, Benjamin W.
Jones, Jeremy B.
Schuur, Edward A. G.
Chapin, F. Stuart, III
Bowden, William B.
Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
Epstein, Howard E.
Flannigan, Michael D.
Harms, Tamara K.
Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
McGuire, A. David
Natali, Susan M.
Rocha, Adrian V.
Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
author_sort Abbott, Benjamin W.
title Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
title_short Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
title_full Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
title_fullStr Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
title_full_unstemmed Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
title_sort biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
publishDate 2016
url https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Climate change
permafrost
вечная мерзлота
genre_facet Arctic
Climate change
permafrost
вечная мерзлота
op_source Environmental research letters. 2016. Vol. 11. P. 034014 (1-13)
op_relation vtls:000576414
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
container_title Environmental Research Letters
container_volume 11
container_issue 3
container_start_page 034014
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