Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 |
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ftneicon:oai:rour.neicon.ru:rour/314176 2023-05-15T14:58:36+02:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Pokrovsky, Oleg S. 2016 application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 eng eng vtls:000576414 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 Environmental research letters. 2016. Vol. 11. P. 034014 (1-13) вечная мерзлота углеродный баланс биомасса статьи в журналах info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftneicon https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2020-07-21T12:37:32Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost вечная мерзлота NORA (National aggregator of open repositories of Russian universities) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NORA (National aggregator of open repositories of Russian universities) |
op_collection_id |
ftneicon |
language |
English |
topic |
вечная мерзлота углеродный баланс биомасса |
spellingShingle |
вечная мерзлота углеродный баланс биомасса Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Pokrovsky, Oleg S. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
вечная мерзлота углеродный баланс биомасса |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Pokrovsky, Oleg S. |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart, III Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Pokrovsky, Oleg S. |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost вечная мерзлота |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost вечная мерзлота |
op_source |
Environmental research letters. 2016. Vol. 11. P. 034014 (1-13) |
op_relation |
vtls:000576414 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://openrepository.ru/article?id=314176 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
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1766330733604896768 |