Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate
In order to identify and fully understand the impacts of industrial emissions on climate and ozone loss, we must understand sources of natural variability in modulating long-term changes. Explosive volcanic eruptions can perturb levels of stratospheric aerosol, which can both cool the Earth’s surfac...
Other Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7251ng0 |
id |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:conference_3467 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:conference_3467 2023-05-15T13:40:28+02:00 Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate University of Canterbury SPCS Seminar 2019 Mills, Michael J. (author) University of Canterbury (sponsor) 2019-10-09- http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7251ng0 en eng conference:3467 ark:/85065/d7251ng0 http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7251ng0 Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. CC-BY-NC conference material Text 2019 ftncar 2022-08-09T18:11:14Z In order to identify and fully understand the impacts of industrial emissions on climate and ozone loss, we must understand sources of natural variability in modulating long-term changes. Explosive volcanic eruptions can perturb levels of stratospheric aerosol, which can both cool the Earth’s surface and enhance stratospheric ozone loss on time scales of several years. A new generation of space-born and ground-based observations has highlighted the previously overlooked role of small-to-moderate volcanic eruptions in enhancing stratospheric aerosol. New capabilities of global chemistry-climate models to calculate stratospheric aerosol properties from volcanic emissions is providing new insights into the effects of such eruptions on reducing the rate of global warming as well as delaying the recovery of stratospheric ozone. Calculations using a volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions inventory in NCAR’s Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with detailed sulfur chemistry and a prognostic stratospheric aerosol scheme show that small-to-moderate eruptions have offset 30% of the warming from CO2 emissions since 2000. During the same era, model calculations show that eruptions have periodically expanded loss in the seasonal Antarctic ozone hole. Only by identifying and removing the impacts of such eruptions can we now conclude that stratospheric ozone recovery from anthropogenic halogens is currently emerging. The cooling effect of volcanic eruptions has inspired proposals to offset global warming via artificial enhancement of stratospheric aerosol. WACCM has been used to evaluate such geoengineering schemes, incorporating intelligent feedback algorithms to optimize multiple climate targets. The results show potential for reducing global warming, but raise risks to the ozone layer, to rapid warming if geoengineering were terminated, and to warfare over control of the Earth’s climate. Nuclear war represents the greatest threat to humanity. The hundreds of thousands or millions of immediate casualties in the ... Text Antarc* Antarctic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
In order to identify and fully understand the impacts of industrial emissions on climate and ozone loss, we must understand sources of natural variability in modulating long-term changes. Explosive volcanic eruptions can perturb levels of stratospheric aerosol, which can both cool the Earth’s surface and enhance stratospheric ozone loss on time scales of several years. A new generation of space-born and ground-based observations has highlighted the previously overlooked role of small-to-moderate volcanic eruptions in enhancing stratospheric aerosol. New capabilities of global chemistry-climate models to calculate stratospheric aerosol properties from volcanic emissions is providing new insights into the effects of such eruptions on reducing the rate of global warming as well as delaying the recovery of stratospheric ozone. Calculations using a volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions inventory in NCAR’s Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with detailed sulfur chemistry and a prognostic stratospheric aerosol scheme show that small-to-moderate eruptions have offset 30% of the warming from CO2 emissions since 2000. During the same era, model calculations show that eruptions have periodically expanded loss in the seasonal Antarctic ozone hole. Only by identifying and removing the impacts of such eruptions can we now conclude that stratospheric ozone recovery from anthropogenic halogens is currently emerging. The cooling effect of volcanic eruptions has inspired proposals to offset global warming via artificial enhancement of stratospheric aerosol. WACCM has been used to evaluate such geoengineering schemes, incorporating intelligent feedback algorithms to optimize multiple climate targets. The results show potential for reducing global warming, but raise risks to the ozone layer, to rapid warming if geoengineering were terminated, and to warfare over control of the Earth’s climate. Nuclear war represents the greatest threat to humanity. The hundreds of thousands or millions of immediate casualties in the ... |
author2 |
University of Canterbury SPCS Seminar 2019 Mills, Michael J. (author) University of Canterbury (sponsor) |
format |
Text |
title |
Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
spellingShingle |
Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
title_short |
Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
title_full |
Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
title_sort |
impacts of volcanic eruptions, nuclear war, and geoengineering on the ozone layer and surface climate |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7251ng0 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
conference:3467 ark:/85065/d7251ng0 http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7251ng0 |
op_rights |
Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
_version_ |
1766135891030441984 |