The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth’s climate system, characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic. This ocean circulation system transpo...

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Other Authors: Delworth, Thomas (author), Clark, Peter (author), Holland, Marika (author), Johns, William (author), Kuhlbrodt, Till (author), Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean (author), Morrill, Carrie (author), Seager, Richard (author), Weaver, Andrew (author), Zhang, Rong (author)
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: U.S. Geological Survey 2008
Subjects:
Online Access:http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-596
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spelling ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:books_255 2023-10-01T03:56:23+02:00 The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Delworth, Thomas (author) Clark, Peter (author) Holland, Marika (author) Johns, William (author) Kuhlbrodt, Till (author) Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean (author) Morrill, Carrie (author) Seager, Richard (author) Weaver, Andrew (author) Zhang, Rong (author) 2008-12-15 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-596 en eng U.S. Geological Survey Abrupt Climate Change--https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc12027/m2/1/high_res_d/sap3-4-final-report-all.pdf https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc12027/m2/1/high_res_d/sap3-4-final-report-all.pdf ark:/85065/d7930vjg http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-596 Copyright 2008 U.S. Geological Survey. Text chapter 2008 ftncar 2023-09-04T18:27:32Z The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth’s climate system, characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic. This ocean circulation system transports a substantial amount of heat from the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere toward the North Atlantic, where the heat is transferred to the atmosphere. Changes in this circulation have a profound impact on the global climate system, as indicated by paleoclimate records. These include, for example, changes in African and Indian monsoon rainfall, atmospheric circulation of relevance to hurricanes, and climate over North America and Western Europe. In this chapter, we have assessed what we know about the AMOC and the likelihood of future changes in the AMOC in response to increasing greenhouse gases, including the possibility of abrupt change. We have five primary findings: It is very likely that the strength of the AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21st century in response to increasing greenhouse gases, with a best estimate decrease of 25-30%. Even with the projected moderate AMOC weakening, it is still very likely that on multidecadal to century time scales a warming trend will occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in response to increasing greenhouse gases, as well as over North America. No current comprehensive climate model projects that the AMOC will abruptly weaken or collapse in the 21st century. We therefore conclude that such an event is very unlikely. Further, an abrupt collapse of the AMOC would require either a sensitivity of the AMOC to forcing that is far greater than current models suggest or a forcing that greatly exceeds even the most aggressive of current projections (such as extremely rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet). However, we cannot completely exclude either possibility. We further conclude it is unlikely that the AMOC will collapse beyond ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet north atlantic current North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Greenland Indian
institution Open Polar
collection OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)
op_collection_id ftncar
language English
description The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth’s climate system, characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic. This ocean circulation system transports a substantial amount of heat from the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere toward the North Atlantic, where the heat is transferred to the atmosphere. Changes in this circulation have a profound impact on the global climate system, as indicated by paleoclimate records. These include, for example, changes in African and Indian monsoon rainfall, atmospheric circulation of relevance to hurricanes, and climate over North America and Western Europe. In this chapter, we have assessed what we know about the AMOC and the likelihood of future changes in the AMOC in response to increasing greenhouse gases, including the possibility of abrupt change. We have five primary findings: It is very likely that the strength of the AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21st century in response to increasing greenhouse gases, with a best estimate decrease of 25-30%. Even with the projected moderate AMOC weakening, it is still very likely that on multidecadal to century time scales a warming trend will occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in response to increasing greenhouse gases, as well as over North America. No current comprehensive climate model projects that the AMOC will abruptly weaken or collapse in the 21st century. We therefore conclude that such an event is very unlikely. Further, an abrupt collapse of the AMOC would require either a sensitivity of the AMOC to forcing that is far greater than current models suggest or a forcing that greatly exceeds even the most aggressive of current projections (such as extremely rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet). However, we cannot completely exclude either possibility. We further conclude it is unlikely that the AMOC will collapse beyond ...
author2 Delworth, Thomas (author)
Clark, Peter (author)
Holland, Marika (author)
Johns, William (author)
Kuhlbrodt, Till (author)
Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean (author)
Morrill, Carrie (author)
Seager, Richard (author)
Weaver, Andrew (author)
Zhang, Rong (author)
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
title The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
spellingShingle The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
title_short The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
title_full The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
title_fullStr The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
title_full_unstemmed The potential for abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
title_sort potential for abrupt change in the atlantic meridional overturning circulation
publisher U.S. Geological Survey
publishDate 2008
url http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-596
geographic Greenland
Indian
geographic_facet Greenland
Indian
genre Greenland
Ice Sheet
north atlantic current
North Atlantic
genre_facet Greenland
Ice Sheet
north atlantic current
North Atlantic
op_relation Abrupt Climate Change--https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc12027/m2/1/high_res_d/sap3-4-final-report-all.pdf
https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc12027/m2/1/high_res_d/sap3-4-final-report-all.pdf
ark:/85065/d7930vjg
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-596
op_rights Copyright 2008 U.S. Geological Survey.
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