Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate
Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions often rely on statistical relationships of a set of predictors that have shown skill for historical conditions. However, with rapid changes occurring in the Arctic climate, it is unclear whether these statistical relationships will remain valid. Here...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_8870 2023-10-01T03:52:41+02:00 Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate Holland, Marika (author) Stroeve, Julienne (author) American Geophysical Union (sponsor) 2001-09-20 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-979 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049303 en eng Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-979 doi:10.1029/2011GL049303 ark:/85065/d728089v Copyright 2011 American Geophysical Union. Sea ice Arctic region Ice mechanics Oceanography Mathematical geophysics Prediction Text article 2001 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049303 2023-09-04T18:26:51Z Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions often rely on statistical relationships of a set of predictors that have shown skill for historical conditions. However, with rapid changes occurring in the Arctic climate, it is unclear whether these statistical relationships will remain valid. Here, preindustrial control, present-day control, and 20th-21st century climate model integrations are used to assess predictors for end-of-summer ice extent under various and changing climate conditions. Of importance for future forecasting systems, we find that the variance of September extent anomalies explained by winter-spring sea ice predictors, such as the area of Arctic basin thin ice cover, increases during the transition to a seasonally ice-covered Arctic. In contrast, summer atmospheric circulation variability plays a decreasingly important role in explaining the end-of-summer ice cover anomalies. These changes are primarily related to climate-dependent changes in the location of summer sea ice anomalies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 38 18 n/a n/a |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea ice Arctic region Ice mechanics Oceanography Mathematical geophysics Prediction |
spellingShingle |
Sea ice Arctic region Ice mechanics Oceanography Mathematical geophysics Prediction Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate |
topic_facet |
Sea ice Arctic region Ice mechanics Oceanography Mathematical geophysics Prediction |
description |
Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions often rely on statistical relationships of a set of predictors that have shown skill for historical conditions. However, with rapid changes occurring in the Arctic climate, it is unclear whether these statistical relationships will remain valid. Here, preindustrial control, present-day control, and 20th-21st century climate model integrations are used to assess predictors for end-of-summer ice extent under various and changing climate conditions. Of importance for future forecasting systems, we find that the variance of September extent anomalies explained by winter-spring sea ice predictors, such as the area of Arctic basin thin ice cover, increases during the transition to a seasonally ice-covered Arctic. In contrast, summer atmospheric circulation variability plays a decreasingly important role in explaining the end-of-summer ice cover anomalies. These changes are primarily related to climate-dependent changes in the location of summer sea ice anomalies. |
author2 |
Holland, Marika (author) Stroeve, Julienne (author) American Geophysical Union (sponsor) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate |
title_short |
Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate |
title_full |
Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate |
title_fullStr |
Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate |
title_sort |
changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing arctic climate |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-979 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049303 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-979 doi:10.1029/2011GL049303 ark:/85065/d728089v |
op_rights |
Copyright 2011 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049303 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
18 |
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n/a |
_version_ |
1778518832811343872 |