Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice
We examine the trajectory of Arctic summer sea ice in seven projections from the Community Climate System Model and find that abrupt reductions are a common feature of these 21st century simulations. These events have decreasing September ice extent trends that are typically 4 times larger than comp...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2006
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-535 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028024 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_7050 2023-10-01T03:49:53+02:00 Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice Holland, Marika (author) Bitz, Cecelia (author) Tremblay, Bruno (author) 2006-12-12 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-535 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028024 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-535 doi:10.1029/2006GL028024 ark:/85065/d7gh9j7t Copyright 2006 American Geophysical Union. Arctic sea ice Global climate models Cryospheric change Text article 2006 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028024 2023-09-04T18:22:10Z We examine the trajectory of Arctic summer sea ice in seven projections from the Community Climate System Model and find that abrupt reductions are a common feature of these 21st century simulations. These events have decreasing September ice extent trends that are typically 4 times larger than comparable observed trends. One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km² to 2 million km² in a decade, reaching near ice-free September conditions by 2040. In the simulations, ice retreat accelerates as thinning increases the open water formation efficiency for a given melt rate and the ice-albedo feedback increases shortwave absorption. The retreat is abrupt when ocean heat transport to the Arctic is rapidly increasing. Analysis from multiple climate models and three forcing scenarios indicates that abrupt reductions occur in simulations from over 50% of the models and suggests that reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions moderate the likelihood of these events. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 33 23 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice Global climate models Cryospheric change |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice Global climate models Cryospheric change Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice Global climate models Cryospheric change |
description |
We examine the trajectory of Arctic summer sea ice in seven projections from the Community Climate System Model and find that abrupt reductions are a common feature of these 21st century simulations. These events have decreasing September ice extent trends that are typically 4 times larger than comparable observed trends. One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km² to 2 million km² in a decade, reaching near ice-free September conditions by 2040. In the simulations, ice retreat accelerates as thinning increases the open water formation efficiency for a given melt rate and the ice-albedo feedback increases shortwave absorption. The retreat is abrupt when ocean heat transport to the Arctic is rapidly increasing. Analysis from multiple climate models and three forcing scenarios indicates that abrupt reductions occur in simulations from over 50% of the models and suggests that reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions moderate the likelihood of these events. |
author2 |
Holland, Marika (author) Bitz, Cecelia (author) Tremblay, Bruno (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
future abrupt reductions in the summer arctic sea ice |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-535 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028024 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-535 doi:10.1029/2006GL028024 ark:/85065/d7gh9j7t |
op_rights |
Copyright 2006 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028024 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
23 |
_version_ |
1778516946612912128 |