Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate
We carry out climate simulations for 1880 - 2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate chan...
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-317 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_6975 2023-10-01T03:59:23+02:00 Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate Meehl, Gerald (author) Teng, Haiyan (author) 2007-12-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-317 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 en eng Springer Climate Dynamics http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-317 doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 ark:/85065/d75h7gh1 Copyright 2007 Springer. Text article 2007 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 2023-09-04T18:22:13Z We carry out climate simulations for 1880 - 2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880 - 2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Niño-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Climate Dynamics 29 7-8 779 790 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
We carry out climate simulations for 1880 - 2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880 - 2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Niño-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. |
author2 |
Meehl, Gerald (author) Teng, Haiyan (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate |
spellingShingle |
Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate |
title_short |
Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate |
title_full |
Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate |
title_fullStr |
Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate |
title_sort |
multi-model changes in el niño teleconnections over north america in a future warmer climate |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-317 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Climate Dynamics http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-317 doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 ark:/85065/d75h7gh1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2007 Springer. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0268-3 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
779 |
op_container_end_page |
790 |
_version_ |
1778533328528343040 |