Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time win...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-278 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029703 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_6937 2023-10-01T03:52:13+02:00 Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast Stroeve, Julienne (author) Holland, Marika (author) Meier, Walt (author) Scambos, Ted (author) Serreze, Mark (author) American Geophysical Union (sponsor) 2007-05-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-278 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029703 en eng Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-278 doi:10.1029/2007GL029703 ark:/85065/d72z15tm Copyright 2007 American Geophysical Union. Cryosphere Glaciology Climate variability Text article 2007 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029703 2023-09-04T18:21:58Z From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the multi-model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33–38% of the observed September trend from 1953–2006 is externally forced, growing to 47–57% from 1979–2006. Given evidence that as a group, the models underestimate the GHG response, the externally forced component may be larger. While both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor model performance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 34 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Cryosphere Glaciology Climate variability |
spellingShingle |
Cryosphere Glaciology Climate variability Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |
topic_facet |
Cryosphere Glaciology Climate variability |
description |
From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the multi-model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33–38% of the observed September trend from 1953–2006 is externally forced, growing to 47–57% from 1979–2006. Given evidence that as a group, the models underestimate the GHG response, the externally forced component may be larger. While both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor model performance. |
author2 |
Stroeve, Julienne (author) Holland, Marika (author) Meier, Walt (author) Scambos, Ted (author) Serreze, Mark (author) American Geophysical Union (sponsor) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |
title_short |
Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |
title_full |
Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Sea ice decline: Faster than forecast |
title_sort |
arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-278 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029703 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-278 doi:10.1029/2007GL029703 ark:/85065/d72z15tm |
op_rights |
Copyright 2007 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029703 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1778517978185203712 |