Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2007
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-115 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_6809 2023-10-01T03:52:12+02:00 Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century Eyring, V. (author) Waugh, D. (author) Bodeker, G. (author) Cordero, E. (author) Akiyoshi, H. (author) Austin, J. (author) Beagley, S. (author) Boville, Byron (author) Braesicke, P. (author) Bruehl, C. (author) Butchart, N. (author) Chipperfield, M. (author) Dameris, M. (author) Deckert, R. (author) Deushi, M. (author) Frith, S. (author) Garcia, Rolando (author) Gettelman, Andrew (author) Giorgetta, M. (author) Kinnison, Douglas (author) Mancini, E. (author) Manzini, E. (author) Marsh, Daniel (author) Matthes, S. (author) Nagashima, T. (author) Newman, P. (author) Nielsen, J. (author) Pawson, S. (author) Pitari, G. (author) Plummer, D. (author) Rozanov, E. (author) Schraner, M. (author) Scinocca, J. (author) Semeniuk, K. (author) Shepherd, T. (author) Shibata, K. (author) Steil, B. (author) Stolarski, R. (author) Tian, W. (author) Yoshiki, M. (author) 2007-08-21 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-115 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332 en eng American Geophysical Union Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-115 doi:10.1029/2006JD008332 ark:/85065/d7mg7pqw Copyright 2007 American Geophysical Union. Atmospheric Composition and Structure Middle atmosphere dynamics Text article 2007 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332 2023-09-04T18:27:48Z Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHG-induced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower-stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Arctic Midwinter ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) The Antarctic Journal of Geophysical Research 112 D16 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Composition and Structure Middle atmosphere dynamics |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Composition and Structure Middle atmosphere dynamics Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Composition and Structure Middle atmosphere dynamics |
description |
Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHG-induced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower-stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does ... |
author2 |
Eyring, V. (author) Waugh, D. (author) Bodeker, G. (author) Cordero, E. (author) Akiyoshi, H. (author) Austin, J. (author) Beagley, S. (author) Boville, Byron (author) Braesicke, P. (author) Bruehl, C. (author) Butchart, N. (author) Chipperfield, M. (author) Dameris, M. (author) Deckert, R. (author) Deushi, M. (author) Frith, S. (author) Garcia, Rolando (author) Gettelman, Andrew (author) Giorgetta, M. (author) Kinnison, Douglas (author) Mancini, E. (author) Manzini, E. (author) Marsh, Daniel (author) Matthes, S. (author) Nagashima, T. (author) Newman, P. (author) Nielsen, J. (author) Pawson, S. (author) Pitari, G. (author) Plummer, D. (author) Rozanov, E. (author) Schraner, M. (author) Scinocca, J. (author) Semeniuk, K. (author) Shepherd, T. (author) Shibata, K. (author) Steil, B. (author) Stolarski, R. (author) Tian, W. (author) Yoshiki, M. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-115 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Midwinter The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Midwinter The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-004-115 doi:10.1029/2006JD008332 ark:/85065/d7mg7pqw |
op_rights |
Copyright 2007 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008332 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
112 |
container_issue |
D16 |
_version_ |
1778517953091731456 |