Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model
This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) in a high-latitude setting and its ability to capture a...
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American Meteorological Society
2007
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-984 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3459.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_6682 2023-07-30T03:57:21+02:00 Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model Powers, Jordan (author) 2007-09-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-984 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3459.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Monthly Weather Review http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-984 doi:10.1175/MWR3459.1 ark:/85065/d71c1x4k Copyright 2007 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Text article 2007 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3459.1 2023-07-17T18:37:50Z This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) in a high-latitude setting and its ability to capture a significant Antarctic weather event are investigated. Also, in a suite of sensitivity tests, the impacts of the assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric motion vectors on ARW Antarctic forecasts are explored. The simulation results are analyzed and the statistical significance of error differences is assessed. It is found that with the proper consideration of MODIS data the ARW can accurately simulate a major Antarctic event, the May 2004 McMurdo windstorm. The ARW simulations illuminate an episode of high-momentum flow responding to the complex orography of the vital Ross Island region. While the model captures the synoptic setting and basic trajectory of the cyclone driving the event, there are differences on the mesoscale in the evolution of the low pressure system that significantly affect the forecast results. In general, both the ARW and AMPS’s fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) tend to underforecast the wind magnitudes, reflecting their stalling and filling of the system near Ross Island. It is seen, however, that both targeted data assimilation and grid resolution enhancement can yield improvement in the forecast of the key parameter of wind speed. It is found that the assimilation of MODIS observations can significantly improve the forecast for a high-impact Antarctic weather event. However, the application to the retrievals of a filter accounting for instrument channel, observation height, and surface type is necessary. The results indicate benefits to initial conditions and high-resolution, polar, mesoscale forecasts from the careful assimilation of nontraditional satellite observations over ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ross Island OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Ross Island Monthly Weather Review 135 9 3134 3157 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) in a high-latitude setting and its ability to capture a significant Antarctic weather event are investigated. Also, in a suite of sensitivity tests, the impacts of the assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric motion vectors on ARW Antarctic forecasts are explored. The simulation results are analyzed and the statistical significance of error differences is assessed. It is found that with the proper consideration of MODIS data the ARW can accurately simulate a major Antarctic event, the May 2004 McMurdo windstorm. The ARW simulations illuminate an episode of high-momentum flow responding to the complex orography of the vital Ross Island region. While the model captures the synoptic setting and basic trajectory of the cyclone driving the event, there are differences on the mesoscale in the evolution of the low pressure system that significantly affect the forecast results. In general, both the ARW and AMPS’s fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) tend to underforecast the wind magnitudes, reflecting their stalling and filling of the system near Ross Island. It is seen, however, that both targeted data assimilation and grid resolution enhancement can yield improvement in the forecast of the key parameter of wind speed. It is found that the assimilation of MODIS observations can significantly improve the forecast for a high-impact Antarctic weather event. However, the application to the retrievals of a filter accounting for instrument channel, observation height, and surface type is necessary. The results indicate benefits to initial conditions and high-resolution, polar, mesoscale forecasts from the careful assimilation of nontraditional satellite observations over ... |
author2 |
Powers, Jordan (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model |
spellingShingle |
Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model |
title_short |
Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model |
title_full |
Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model |
title_fullStr |
Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Numerical prediction of an Antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model |
title_sort |
numerical prediction of an antarctic severe wind event with the weather research and forecasting (wrf) model |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-984 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3459.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Ross Island |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ross Island |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ross Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ross Island |
op_relation |
Monthly Weather Review http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-984 doi:10.1175/MWR3459.1 ark:/85065/d71c1x4k |
op_rights |
Copyright 2007 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3459.1 |
container_title |
Monthly Weather Review |
container_volume |
135 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3134 |
op_container_end_page |
3157 |
_version_ |
1772817030134628352 |