Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability
The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_27246 2024-09-09T19:56:56+00:00 Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability Dong, Wenhao (author) Ming, Yi (author) Deng, Yi (author) Shen, Zhaoyi (author) 2024-05-23 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x unknown Nature Communications--Nat Commun--2041-1723 articles:27246 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x ark:/85065/d7st7v2f article 2024 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x 2024-06-17T14:08:34Z The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD. NA16NWS4620043 NA18NWS4620043B Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Nature Communications 15 1 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD. NA16NWS4620043 NA18NWS4620043B |
author2 |
Dong, Wenhao (author) Ming, Yi (author) Deng, Yi (author) Shen, Zhaoyi (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
spellingShingle |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_short |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_full |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_fullStr |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability |
title_sort |
recent wetting trend over taklamakan and gobi desert dominated by internal variability |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Nature Communications--Nat Commun--2041-1723 articles:27246 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x ark:/85065/d7st7v2f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48743-x |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
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15 |
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1 |
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1809927807373934592 |