Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
Earth system models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century with light-limited regions becoming more productive and nutrient-limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state but also the...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_27031 2024-04-21T08:07:51+00:00 Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability Elsworth, Geneviève W. (author) Lovenduski, Nicole S. (author) Krumhardt, Kristen M. (author) Marchitto, Thomas M. (author) Schlunegger, Sarah (author) 2023-11-10 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 en eng Biogeosciences--Biogeosciences--1726-4189 The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project--10.5065/d6j101d1 articles:27031 doi:10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 ark:/85065/d78p64pd Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article 2023 ftncar https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 2024-03-28T01:28:35Z Earth system models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century with light-limited regions becoming more productive and nutrient-limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state but also the internal variability around the mean state, yet little is known about how internal variability in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variability of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario and heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing internal variability in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, bottom-up controls (e.g., nutrient supply, temperature) influence changes in biomass internal variability. In the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the equatorial Pacific, bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) and top-down controls (e.g., grazer biomass) affect changes in phytoplankton carbon internal variability, respectively. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries, marine carbon cycling) should also consider changes in phytoplankton internal variability driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Biogeosciences 20 21 4477 4490 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Earth system models suggest that anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century with light-limited regions becoming more productive and nutrient-limited regions less productive. Anthropogenic climate change can influence not only the mean state but also the internal variability around the mean state, yet little is known about how internal variability in marine phytoplankton will change with time. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on internal variability in marine phytoplankton biomass from 1920 to 2100 using the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE). We find a significant decrease in the internal variability of global phytoplankton carbon biomass under a high emission (RCP8.5) scenario and heterogeneous regional trends. Decreasing internal variability in biomass is most apparent in the subpolar North Atlantic and North Pacific. In these high-latitude regions, bottom-up controls (e.g., nutrient supply, temperature) influence changes in biomass internal variability. In the biogeochemically critical regions of the Southern Ocean and the equatorial Pacific, bottom-up controls (e.g., light, nutrients) and top-down controls (e.g., grazer biomass) affect changes in phytoplankton carbon internal variability, respectively. Our results suggest that climate mitigation and adaptation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes (e.g., fisheries, marine carbon cycling) should also consider changes in phytoplankton internal variability driven by anthropogenic warming, particularly on regional scales. |
author2 |
Elsworth, Geneviève W. (author) Lovenduski, Nicole S. (author) Krumhardt, Kristen M. (author) Marchitto, Thomas M. (author) Schlunegger, Sarah (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
spellingShingle |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
title_short |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
title_full |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
title_sort |
anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Biogeosciences--Biogeosciences--1726-4189 The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project--10.5065/d6j101d1 articles:27031 doi:10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 ark:/85065/d78p64pd |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
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20 |
container_issue |
21 |
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4477 |
op_container_end_page |
4490 |
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1796947927803887616 |