Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America
Future Arctic sea ice loss has a known impact on Arctic amplification (AA) and mean atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, several studies have shown it leads to a decreased variance in temperature over North America. In this study, we analyze results from two fully coupled Community Earth System Mod...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_27024 2024-04-21T07:53:32+00:00 Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America Gervais, Melissa (author) Sun, Lantao (author) Deser, Clara (author) 2024-02-01 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 en eng Journal of Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America--10.26208/144H-0X26 articles:27024 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 ark:/85065/d79k4gdg Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2024 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 2024-03-28T01:28:35Z Future Arctic sea ice loss has a known impact on Arctic amplification (AA) and mean atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, several studies have shown it leads to a decreased variance in temperature over North America. In this study, we analyze results from two fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) simulations with sea ice nudged to either the ensemble mean of WACCM historical runs averaged over the 1980-99 period for the control (CTL) or projected RCP8.5 values over the 2080-99 period for the experiment (EXP). Dominant large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are then identified using self-organizing maps applied to winter daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies (Z ' 500) over North America. We investigate how sea ice loss (EXP - CTL) impacts the frequency of these LSMPs and, through composite analysis, the sensible weather associated with them. We find differences in LSMP frequency but no change in residency time, indicating there is no stagnation of the flow with sea ice loss. Sea ice loss also acts to de-amplify and/or shift the Z ' 500 that characterize these LSMPs and their associated anomalies in potential temperature at 850 hPa. Impacts on precipitation anomalies are more localized and consistent with changes in anomalous sea level pressure. With this LSMP framework we provide new mechanistic insights, demonstrating a role for thermodynamic, dynamic, and diabatic processes in sea ice impacts on atmospheric variability. Understanding these processes from a synoptic perspective is critical as some LSMPs play an outsized role in producing the mean response to Arctic sea ice loss. 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of Climate 37 3 1065 1085 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Future Arctic sea ice loss has a known impact on Arctic amplification (AA) and mean atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, several studies have shown it leads to a decreased variance in temperature over North America. In this study, we analyze results from two fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) simulations with sea ice nudged to either the ensemble mean of WACCM historical runs averaged over the 1980-99 period for the control (CTL) or projected RCP8.5 values over the 2080-99 period for the experiment (EXP). Dominant large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are then identified using self-organizing maps applied to winter daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies (Z ' 500) over North America. We investigate how sea ice loss (EXP - CTL) impacts the frequency of these LSMPs and, through composite analysis, the sensible weather associated with them. We find differences in LSMP frequency but no change in residency time, indicating there is no stagnation of the flow with sea ice loss. Sea ice loss also acts to de-amplify and/or shift the Z ' 500 that characterize these LSMPs and their associated anomalies in potential temperature at 850 hPa. Impacts on precipitation anomalies are more localized and consistent with changes in anomalous sea level pressure. With this LSMP framework we provide new mechanistic insights, demonstrating a role for thermodynamic, dynamic, and diabatic processes in sea ice impacts on atmospheric variability. Understanding these processes from a synoptic perspective is critical as some LSMPs play an outsized role in producing the mean response to Arctic sea ice loss. 1852977 |
author2 |
Gervais, Melissa (author) Sun, Lantao (author) Deser, Clara (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America |
spellingShingle |
Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America |
title_short |
Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America |
title_full |
Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America |
title_sort |
impacts of projected arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over north america |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 Impacts of projected Arctic sea ice loss on daily weather patterns over North America--10.26208/144H-0X26 articles:27024 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 ark:/85065/d79k4gdg |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0389.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1065 |
op_container_end_page |
1085 |
_version_ |
1796936626207719424 |