Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale informatio...
Published in: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_26874 2024-02-04T10:02:41+01:00 Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting Takaya, Yuhei (author) Caron, Louis-Philippe (author) Blake, Eric (author) Bonnardot, François (author) Bruneau, Nicolas (author) Camp, Joanne (author) Chan, Johnny (author) Gregory, Paul (author) Jones, Jhordanne J. (author) Kang, Namyoung (author) Klotzbach, Philip J. (author) Kuleshov, Yuriy (author) Leroux, Marie-Dominique (author) Lockwood, Julia F. (author) Murakami, Hiroyuki (author) Nishimura, Akio (author) Pattanaik, Dushmanta R. (author) Philp, Tom J. (author) Ruprich-Robert, Yohan (author) Toumi, Ralf (author) Vitart, Frédéric (author) Won, Seonghee (author) Zhan, Ruifen (author) 2023-09 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 unknown Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--22256032 articles:26874 doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 ark:/85065/d7mc944c article 2023 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 2024-01-08T19:20:16Z Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Nin similar to o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.(c) 2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Indian Pacific Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 12 3 182 199 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
unknown |
description |
Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Nin similar to o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.(c) 2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
author2 |
Takaya, Yuhei (author) Caron, Louis-Philippe (author) Blake, Eric (author) Bonnardot, François (author) Bruneau, Nicolas (author) Camp, Joanne (author) Chan, Johnny (author) Gregory, Paul (author) Jones, Jhordanne J. (author) Kang, Namyoung (author) Klotzbach, Philip J. (author) Kuleshov, Yuriy (author) Leroux, Marie-Dominique (author) Lockwood, Julia F. (author) Murakami, Hiroyuki (author) Nishimura, Akio (author) Pattanaik, Dushmanta R. (author) Philp, Tom J. (author) Ruprich-Robert, Yohan (author) Toumi, Ralf (author) Vitart, Frédéric (author) Won, Seonghee (author) Zhan, Ruifen (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
spellingShingle |
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
title_short |
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
title_full |
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
title_sort |
recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--22256032 articles:26874 doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 ark:/85065/d7mc944c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003 |
container_title |
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
182 |
op_container_end_page |
199 |
_version_ |
1789969566442455040 |