Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations
Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011 to 2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean-...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_26865 2024-02-04T09:57:25+01:00 Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations Zhang, Yong‐Fei (author) Bushuk, Mitchell (author) Winton, Michael (author) Hurlin, Bill (author) Gregory, William (author) Landy, Jack (author) Jia, Liwei (author) 2023-12-28 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 unknown Geophysical Research Letters--Geophysical Research Letters--0094-8276--1944-8007 articles:26865 doi:10.1029/2023GL105672 ark:/85065/d7s186m6 article 2023 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 2024-01-08T19:20:14Z Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011 to 2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean-sea ice model. The model's SIT anomaly field is brought into significantly better agreement with the observations, particularly in the Central Arctic. Although the short observational period makes forecast assessment challenging, we find that the addition of May-August SIT assimilation improves September local sea ice concentration (SIC) and extent forecasts similarly to SIC-only assimilation. Although most regional forecasts are improved by SIT assimilation, the Chukchi Sea forecasts are degraded. This degradation is likely due to the introduction of negative correlations between September SIC and earlier SIT introduced by SIT assimilation, contrary to the increased correlations found in other regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Chukchi Sea Geophysical Research Letters 50 24 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
unknown |
description |
Because of a spring predictability barrier, the seasonal forecast skill of Arctic summer sea ice is limited by the availability of melt-season sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. The first year-round SIT observations, retrieved from CryoSat-2 from 2011 to 2020, are assimilated into the GFDL ocean-sea ice model. The model's SIT anomaly field is brought into significantly better agreement with the observations, particularly in the Central Arctic. Although the short observational period makes forecast assessment challenging, we find that the addition of May-August SIT assimilation improves September local sea ice concentration (SIC) and extent forecasts similarly to SIC-only assimilation. Although most regional forecasts are improved by SIT assimilation, the Chukchi Sea forecasts are degraded. This degradation is likely due to the introduction of negative correlations between September SIC and earlier SIT introduced by SIT assimilation, contrary to the increased correlations found in other regions. |
author2 |
Zhang, Yong‐Fei (author) Bushuk, Mitchell (author) Winton, Michael (author) Hurlin, Bill (author) Gregory, William (author) Landy, Jack (author) Jia, Liwei (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations |
spellingShingle |
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations |
title_short |
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations |
title_full |
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations |
title_fullStr |
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improvements in September Arctic Sea Ice Predictions Via Assimilation of Summer CryoSat‐2 Sea Ice Thickness Observations |
title_sort |
improvements in september arctic sea ice predictions via assimilation of summer cryosat‐2 sea ice thickness observations |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 |
geographic |
Arctic Chukchi Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Chukchi Sea |
genre |
Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters--Geophysical Research Letters--0094-8276--1944-8007 articles:26865 doi:10.1029/2023GL105672 ark:/85065/d7s186m6 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105672 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
24 |
_version_ |
1789961756001435648 |