Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs
The Model-Analogs technique is used in the present study to assess the decadal sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill over the Southern Ocean (SO). The Model-Analogs here is based on reanalysis products and model control simulations that have similar to 1 degrees ocean/ice (refined to 0.5 de...
Published in: | Environmental Research Communications |
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Language: | English |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_26089 2023-10-01T03:59:35+02:00 Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs Zhang, Liping (author) Delworth, Thomas L (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Morioka, Yushi (author) Zeng, Fanrong (author) Lu, Feiyu (author) 2023-02-01 https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e en eng Environmental Research Communications--Environ. Res. Commun.--2515-7620 articles:26089 doi:10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e ark:/85065/d7r78k47 Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2023 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e 2023-09-04T18:21:13Z The Model-Analogs technique is used in the present study to assess the decadal sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill over the Southern Ocean (SO). The Model-Analogs here is based on reanalysis products and model control simulations that have similar to 1 degrees ocean/ice (refined to 0.5 degrees at high latitudes) components and 100 km atmosphere/land components. It is found that the model analog hindcasts show comparable skills with the initialized retrospective decadal hindcasts south of 50 degrees S, with even higher skills over the Weddell Sea at longer lead years. The high SST skills primarily arise from the successful capture of SO deep convection states. This deep ocean memory and the associated decadal predictability are also clearly seen when we assess the Model-Analogs technique in a perfect model context. Within 30 degrees S-50 degrees S latitudinal band, the model analog hindcasts show low skills. When we include the externally forced signals estimated from the large ensemble simulations, the model analog hindcasts and initialized decadal hindcasts show identical skills. The Model-Analogs method therefore provides a great baseline for developing future decadal forecast systems. It is unclear whether such analog techniques would also be successful with models that explicitly resolve ocean mesoscale eddies or other small-scale processes. This area of research needs to be explored further. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Weddell Sea OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Southern Ocean Weddell Weddell Sea Environmental Research Communications 5 2 021002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The Model-Analogs technique is used in the present study to assess the decadal sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill over the Southern Ocean (SO). The Model-Analogs here is based on reanalysis products and model control simulations that have similar to 1 degrees ocean/ice (refined to 0.5 degrees at high latitudes) components and 100 km atmosphere/land components. It is found that the model analog hindcasts show comparable skills with the initialized retrospective decadal hindcasts south of 50 degrees S, with even higher skills over the Weddell Sea at longer lead years. The high SST skills primarily arise from the successful capture of SO deep convection states. This deep ocean memory and the associated decadal predictability are also clearly seen when we assess the Model-Analogs technique in a perfect model context. Within 30 degrees S-50 degrees S latitudinal band, the model analog hindcasts show low skills. When we include the externally forced signals estimated from the large ensemble simulations, the model analog hindcasts and initialized decadal hindcasts show identical skills. The Model-Analogs method therefore provides a great baseline for developing future decadal forecast systems. It is unclear whether such analog techniques would also be successful with models that explicitly resolve ocean mesoscale eddies or other small-scale processes. This area of research needs to be explored further. |
author2 |
Zhang, Liping (author) Delworth, Thomas L (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Morioka, Yushi (author) Zeng, Fanrong (author) Lu, Feiyu (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs |
spellingShingle |
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs |
title_short |
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs |
title_full |
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs |
title_fullStr |
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful decadal prediction skill over the Southern Ocean based on GFDL SPEAR Model-Analogs |
title_sort |
skillful decadal prediction skill over the southern ocean based on gfdl spear model-analogs |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Weddell Weddell Sea |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Weddell Weddell Sea |
genre |
Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Communications--Environ. Res. Commun.--2515-7620 articles:26089 doi:10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e ark:/85065/d7r78k47 |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb90e |
container_title |
Environmental Research Communications |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
021002 |
_version_ |
1778533789581967360 |