Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2
Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. We evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Predictio...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Language: | English |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036986 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_26088 2023-06-11T04:14:46+02:00 Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 Li, Hui (author) Richter, Jadwiga H. (author) Lee, Chia‐Ying (author) Kim, Hyemi (author) 2022-11-27 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036986 en eng Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres--JGR Atmospheres--2169-897X--2169-8996 articles:26088 doi:10.1029/2022JD036986 ark:/85065/d7vx0mfg Copyright 2022 American Geophysical Union. article Text 2022 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036986 2023-05-29T18:11:59Z Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. We evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1-6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC "seeds" and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. 1852977 DE-SC0022070 1947282 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Indian Pacific Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 127 22 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. We evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1-6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC "seeds" and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. 1852977 DE-SC0022070 1947282 |
author2 |
Li, Hui (author) Richter, Jadwiga H. (author) Lee, Chia‐Ying (author) Kim, Hyemi (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 |
spellingShingle |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 |
title_short |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 |
title_full |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 |
title_fullStr |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 |
title_sort |
subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction and modulations by mjo and enso in cesm2 |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036986 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres--JGR Atmospheres--2169-897X--2169-8996 articles:26088 doi:10.1029/2022JD036986 ark:/85065/d7vx0mfg |
op_rights |
Copyright 2022 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036986 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
127 |
container_issue |
22 |
_version_ |
1768371052615827456 |