Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird
The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life-history strategy, which dire...
Published in: | Journal of Animal Ecology |
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Language: | English |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_25911 2023-05-15T13:04:47+02:00 Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird Talis, Emma J. (author) Che‐Castaldo, Christian (author) Şen, Bilgecan (author) Krumhardt, Kristen (author) Lynch, Heather J. (author) 2022-12 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 en eng Journal of Animal Ecology--Journal of Animal Ecology--0021-8790--1365-2656 articles:25911 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.13827 ark:/85065/d7765k60 Copyright 2022 British Ecological Society. article Text 2022 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 2023-01-02T18:52:01Z The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life-history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of demography on time series for abundance of the Adelie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and explored the occurrence of heavy-tailed dynamics in observed Adelie time series. We focus this study on the Adelie penguin as it is an important bellwether species long used to track the impacts of climate change and fishing on the Southern Ocean ecosystem and shares life-history traits with many colonial seabirds. We quantified the impacts of demographic rates, including skipped breeding, on time series of Adelie abundance simulated using an age-structured model. We also used observed time series of Adelie breeding abundance at all known Antarctic colonies to classify distributions for abundance as Gaussian or non-Gaussian heavy tailed. We then identified the cause of such heavy-tailed dynamics in simulated time series and linked these to spatial patterns in Adelie food resource variability. We found that breeding propensity drives observed breeding fluctuations more than any other vital rate, with high variability in skipped breeding decoupling true abundance from observed breeding abundance. We also found several Antarctic regions characterized by heavy-tailed dynamics in abundance. These regions were often also characterized by high variability in zooplankton availability. In simulated time series, heavy-tailed dynamics were strongly linked to high variability in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Pygoscelis adeliae Southern Ocean OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Southern Ocean Journal of Animal Ecology 91 12 2437 2450 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life-history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of demography on time series for abundance of the Adelie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and explored the occurrence of heavy-tailed dynamics in observed Adelie time series. We focus this study on the Adelie penguin as it is an important bellwether species long used to track the impacts of climate change and fishing on the Southern Ocean ecosystem and shares life-history traits with many colonial seabirds. We quantified the impacts of demographic rates, including skipped breeding, on time series of Adelie abundance simulated using an age-structured model. We also used observed time series of Adelie breeding abundance at all known Antarctic colonies to classify distributions for abundance as Gaussian or non-Gaussian heavy tailed. We then identified the cause of such heavy-tailed dynamics in simulated time series and linked these to spatial patterns in Adelie food resource variability. We found that breeding propensity drives observed breeding fluctuations more than any other vital rate, with high variability in skipped breeding decoupling true abundance from observed breeding abundance. We also found several Antarctic regions characterized by heavy-tailed dynamics in abundance. These regions were often also characterized by high variability in zooplankton availability. In simulated time series, heavy-tailed dynamics were strongly linked to high variability in ... |
author2 |
Talis, Emma J. (author) Che‐Castaldo, Christian (author) Şen, Bilgecan (author) Krumhardt, Kristen (author) Lynch, Heather J. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
spellingShingle |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_short |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_full |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_fullStr |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird |
title_sort |
variability, skipped breeding and heavy‐tailed dynamics in an antarctic seabird |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Pygoscelis adeliae Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Pygoscelis adeliae Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Journal of Animal Ecology--Journal of Animal Ecology--0021-8790--1365-2656 articles:25911 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.13827 ark:/85065/d7765k60 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2022 British Ecological Society. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13827 |
container_title |
Journal of Animal Ecology |
container_volume |
91 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2437 |
op_container_end_page |
2450 |
_version_ |
1766370984144666624 |