A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models
We provide a high-level review of sea ice models used for climate studies and of the recent advances made with these models to understand sea ice predictability. Models currently in use for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and new developments coming online that will enable enhanced predict...
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_25573 2024-04-28T08:08:35+00:00 A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Holland, Marika (author) Hunke, Elizabeth (author) 2022 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 en eng Oceanography--Oceanog--10428275 articles:25573 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 ark:/85065/d7zw1qnc Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2022 ftncar https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 2024-04-04T17:34:52Z We provide a high-level review of sea ice models used for climate studies and of the recent advances made with these models to understand sea ice predictability. Models currently in use for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and new developments coming online that will enable enhanced predictions are discussed. Previous work indicates that seasonal sea ice can be predicted based on mechanisms associated with long-lived ice thickness or ocean heat anomalies. On longer timescales, internal climate variability is an important source of uncertainty, although anthropogenic forcing is sizable, and studies suggest that anthropogenic signals have already emerged from internal climate noise. Using new analysis from the Multi-Model Large Ensemble, we show that while models differ in the magnitude and timing of predictable signals, many ice predictability characteristics are robust across multiple models. This includes the reemergence of predictable seasonal signals in ice area and the sizable uncertainty in predictions of ice-free Arctic timing associated with internal variability. 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Oceanography |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
We provide a high-level review of sea ice models used for climate studies and of the recent advances made with these models to understand sea ice predictability. Models currently in use for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and new developments coming online that will enable enhanced predictions are discussed. Previous work indicates that seasonal sea ice can be predicted based on mechanisms associated with long-lived ice thickness or ocean heat anomalies. On longer timescales, internal climate variability is an important source of uncertainty, although anthropogenic forcing is sizable, and studies suggest that anthropogenic signals have already emerged from internal climate noise. Using new analysis from the Multi-Model Large Ensemble, we show that while models differ in the magnitude and timing of predictable signals, many ice predictability characteristics are robust across multiple models. This includes the reemergence of predictable seasonal signals in ice area and the sizable uncertainty in predictions of ice-free Arctic timing associated with internal variability. 1852977 |
author2 |
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Holland, Marika (author) Hunke, Elizabeth (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models |
spellingShingle |
A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models |
title_short |
A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models |
title_full |
A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models |
title_fullStr |
A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models |
title_full_unstemmed |
A review of Arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale Earth system models |
title_sort |
review of arctic sea ice climate predictability in large-scale earth system models |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Oceanography--Oceanog--10428275 articles:25573 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 ark:/85065/d7zw1qnc |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.113 |
container_title |
Oceanography |
_version_ |
1797577309570465792 |