Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the rel...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
id |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_25329 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_25329 2024-04-14T08:15:54+00:00 Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models Anstey, James A. (author) Simpson, Isla R. (author) Richter, Jadwiga H. (author) Naoe, Hiroaki (author) Taguchi, Masakazu (author) Serva, Federico (author) Gray, Lesley J. (author) Butchart, Neal (author) Hamilton, Kevin (author) Osprey, Scott (author) Bellprat, Omar (author) Braesicke, Peter (author) Bushell, Andrew C. (author) Cagnazzo, Chiara (author) Chen, Chih‐Chieh (author) Chun, Hye‐Yeong (author) Garcia, Rolando R. (author) Holt, Laura (author) Kawatani, Yoshio (author) Kerzenmacher, Tobias (author) Kim, Young‐Ha (author) Lott, Francois (author) McLandress, Charles (author) Scinocca, John (author) Stockdale, Timothy N. (author) Versick, Stefan (author) Watanabe, Shingo (author) Yoshida, Kohei (author) Yukimoto, Seiji (author) 2022-04 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 en eng Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society--Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc--0035-9009--1477-870X S-RIP: Zonal-mean dynamical variables of global atmospheric reanalyses on pressure levels--10.5285/b241a7f536a244749662360bd7839312 articles:25329 doi:10.1002/qj.4048 ark:/85065/d73x8bb1 Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2022 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 2024-03-21T18:00:26Z The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. 1844590 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Pacific Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 148 744 1568 1592 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. 1844590 1852977 |
author2 |
Anstey, James A. (author) Simpson, Isla R. (author) Richter, Jadwiga H. (author) Naoe, Hiroaki (author) Taguchi, Masakazu (author) Serva, Federico (author) Gray, Lesley J. (author) Butchart, Neal (author) Hamilton, Kevin (author) Osprey, Scott (author) Bellprat, Omar (author) Braesicke, Peter (author) Bushell, Andrew C. (author) Cagnazzo, Chiara (author) Chen, Chih‐Chieh (author) Chun, Hye‐Yeong (author) Garcia, Rolando R. (author) Holt, Laura (author) Kawatani, Yoshio (author) Kerzenmacher, Tobias (author) Kim, Young‐Ha (author) Lott, Francois (author) McLandress, Charles (author) Scinocca, John (author) Stockdale, Timothy N. (author) Versick, Stefan (author) Watanabe, Shingo (author) Yoshida, Kohei (author) Yukimoto, Seiji (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
spellingShingle |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_short |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_full |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_fullStr |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models |
title_sort |
teleconnections of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of qbo‐resolving models |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society--Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc--0035-9009--1477-870X S-RIP: Zonal-mean dynamical variables of global atmospheric reanalyses on pressure levels--10.5285/b241a7f536a244749662360bd7839312 articles:25329 doi:10.1002/qj.4048 ark:/85065/d73x8bb1 |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
148 |
container_issue |
744 |
container_start_page |
1568 |
op_container_end_page |
1592 |
_version_ |
1796314380706512896 |