Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties
Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In parti...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 |
id |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_24504 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_24504 2024-04-14T08:01:54+00:00 Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties Berdahl, Mira (author) Leguy, Gunter (author) Lipscomb, William H. (author) Urban, Nathan M. (author) 2021-06-15 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 en eng The Cryosphere--The Cryosphere--1994-0424 mberdahl-uw/TheCryosphere-CISM_emulator: CISM Emulator Code and data--10.5281/zenodo.4902149 articles:24504 doi:10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 ark:/85065/d7jw8j9r Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2021 ftncar https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 2024-03-21T18:00:26Z Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future. 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic The Cryosphere 15 6 2683 2699 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future. 1852977 |
author2 |
Berdahl, Mira (author) Leguy, Gunter (author) Lipscomb, William H. (author) Urban, Nathan M. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
spellingShingle |
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
title_short |
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
title_full |
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
title_sort |
statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify antarctic sea level rise uncertainties |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere--The Cryosphere--1994-0424 mberdahl-uw/TheCryosphere-CISM_emulator: CISM Emulator Code and data--10.5281/zenodo.4902149 articles:24504 doi:10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 ark:/85065/d7jw8j9r |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2683 |
op_container_end_page |
2699 |
_version_ |
1796311601406541824 |